FOXA has reversed course since the previous note — the stock dropped 3.6% on June 12 and is now down 1.6% on the week to $65.85, pulling back from the $68.32 high cited just days ago, while short sellers have begun rebuilding positions after weeks of retreat.
The short-side story has quietly shifted. Short interest ticked up 0.17% on June 12 and is now back to 13.3% of free float — still down about 7.9% over the past month, but the direction-of-travel has reversed from the orderly covering described in the previous note. The borrow market itself remains loose: cost to borrow nudged up 5.8% on the week to 0.56%, still near its lowest levels all year. Availability is ample at roughly 396% — nearly four shares available to lend for every one already borrowed — so there is no mechanical pressure on existing shorts. Options positioning is likewise calm. The put/call ratio at 1.21 is marginally below its 20-day mean of 1.25 and a full standard deviation below the elevated readings seen in early May, when the PCR was running above 2.8. The market is neither heavily hedged nor positioned aggressively to the upside.
The Street's view is cautiously constructive but not excited. Following the May 11 earnings print — which lifted the stock 5.1% on the day — several analysts raised price targets modestly. JP Morgan moved to $70 from $69, Barclays to $67 from $63, and Wells Fargo to $71 from $67, all while keeping neutral-equivalent ratings. With a consensus price target of $73.31 against a current price of $65.85, the implied upside sits around 11%, yet no firm carries a positive rating strong enough to push the consensus above "hold." The bull case rests on Fox's dominance in live sports and news, strong advertising momentum, and the structural resilience of appointment television. Bears point to cord-cutting, regulatory risk, and the dependence on a narrow content slate. Factor scores add nuance: EPS momentum over 30 and 90 days ranks in the 81st percentile, and the forward earnings growth score ranks 82nd — growth expectations are genuinely strong. But the short score of 66.6 places Fox in the 9th percentile on short score rank, flagging that the bears have not gone away.
The ownership picture is worth a glance. State Street added 7.1 million shares in its most recent filing to reach 8.2% of outstanding shares — a meaningful build. Lachlan Murdoch remains the anchor holder at 20.6%, unchanged. On the insider side, Murdoch and President/COO John Nallen collectively sold roughly $53 million of stock in mid-March at prices in the $57–$60 range. The stock has since traded higher, and those sales now look relatively well-timed — though the significance score on those trades was low, suggesting they were likely scheduled disposals rather than a directional signal.
With next earnings scheduled for August 5, the weeks ahead put the advertising revenue outlook for Q4 back in focus — and whether Fox's sports rights spending is translating into the kind of subscriber and yield gains that justify the current multiple of roughly 12.4x earnings.
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