GRPN is up 12% on the week and 35% over the past month, yet the short position that has defined this name all summer still hasn't moved — and the most notable development this week is that borrow availability has done something it hasn't done in over six weeks: it actually opened up.
The lending market has cycled through the same squeeze-and-absorb pattern repeatedly since late May. Each brief loosening proved temporary. This week looks structurally different, at least so far. Availability climbed to 9.2% on July 3 — the highest reading since the brief window in late June before the pool snapped shut again on June 30 at 0.57%. The 52-week low availability was 0.51%. For most of the past six weeks, the figure barely crept above 2%. Nine percent is not comfortable, but it is a genuine loosening relative to where this name has spent most of its summer. Cost to borrow, which had risen 42% over the past month to a recent peak near 2.68%, has pulled back to 2.23% — the first material decline after weeks of upward drift. The question the data raises is whether this is another transient loosening before the pool snaps shut again, or whether some of that structural short pressure is finally beginning to release.
Short interest itself offers almost no answer. At 30.9% of the free float — roughly 12.6 million shares — SI is essentially flat on the week (down 0.7%) and down only 2.7% over the past month. The ORTEX short score sits at 76.2, down fractionally from 76.8 at its recent peak but still ranking in roughly the bottom 4th percentile for short-score positioning across the universe. Days to cover run at 8.3 on the official FINRA data. Shorts have absorbed a 35% monthly rally and have not covered in any meaningful way. That is the central tension in this stock.
The Street is divided cleanly, and the divide has only widened as the price has risen. Goldman Sachs — the most notable bear — maintained its Sell rating in May but raised its target to $13, now deeply below the current $25.58. Bulls at Northland Capital Markets carry an Outperform with a $44 target, and Roth Capital's last published Buy had a $47 target. The mean target from the most recent analyst data is $26.33, which broadly aligns with where the stock is trading — meaning the consensus has effectively been overtaken by the move. The bull case centres on bookings momentum and EBITDA acceleration in the second half; the bear case flags expected billings declines of 2.5% to 5%, rising marketing spend, and cash flow uncertainty around debt refinancing. Factor scores reflect the tug of war: momentum is strong, short-score rank sits in the 1st percentile (worst), and EPS surprise rank is in the 4th percentile — not a quality setup, but a momentum one.
Ownership adds one genuinely notable data point. CEO Dusan Senkypl sold 1.35 million shares on June 11 at $16.54 — a $22.3 million transaction — representing 4.1% of shares outstanding. That sale was made when the stock was well below its current level. Senkypl had previously added 2.06 million shares per the most recent institutional filing, so the net picture is complex: a large holder who built a position and then sold a significant portion into the rally. Pale Fire Capital, the largest institutional holder at 26.8% of shares, reported no change in its position. Co-founder Eric Lefkofsky holds 10.4% and also reported no movement.
With Q1 earnings having delivered a 12% one-day gain and a further 9% move the following day, and Q2 results scheduled for August 6, the next earnings print is the obvious focal point — the question then becomes whether the short position that has survived a 35% rally will finally respond to a number, and whether borrow availability holds near current levels or reverts to the sub-2% range that has characterised the past six weeks.
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