ASX heads into its July 10 earnings print riding a 27% gain over the past month — and options traders are quietly adding more protection as the stock climbs.
The clearest pre-earnings signal comes from the put/call ratio. It has jumped to 0.25, nearly two standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.18 — the most defensive options positioning in the stock's recent history. That shift is notable given how low the absolute PCR level remains; even at its most cautious, the options market still holds far more calls than puts. What has changed is the direction: the PCR was running below 0.10 in late May and has more than doubled since. The stock itself closed at $43.32, up 3.5% on Monday and 2.8% on the week, extending a rally that began in early June.
The borrow market tells a different story than the one published here six days ago. The previous ORTEX article flagged cost-to-borrow hitting 1.09% and availability tightening sharply toward the 52-week low. Since then, both signals have reversed. CTB has dropped 45% to 0.60%, retreating from that spike, and availability has loosened back to 143% — well off the June 1 trough of 79%. Short interest itself has stabilised, with shares short essentially flat over the past week at around 10.2 million, having halved from the ~16.3 million peak in early June. The ORTEX short score has also eased, sitting at 42.7 compared to levels above 43 earlier in the week. The borrow squeeze narrative that was building at the start of July has unwound.
What bulls are focused on is straightforward: Q2 results that beat expectations, gross margins expanding year-over-year, and AI server demand driving advanced packaging volumes. Recent ORTEX stock score analysis put ASX in the top tier of Taiwanese semiconductor names, with EPS momentum running in the 84th percentile on a 30-day basis and a Piotroski F-Score improvement flagging better earnings quality. BlackRock added 16.6 million shares in the period ending June 30 — a material move for a position that now represents nearly 5% of shares outstanding. The bear case centres on valuation: the stock trades at a trailing P/E above 31, with EV/EBITDA near 27, and management has flagged near-term visibility concerns tied to geopolitical supply-chain uncertainty. Analyst data on file is too stale to be meaningful — the most recent formal coverage changes date to 2023 and 2024 and predate the current price level.
The last two prints delivered gains of 4.4% and 10% on the day, with five-day moves of 14% and 24% respectively — a track record that has rewarded holding through results. Thursday's report is therefore less about whether ASX is growing and more about whether management's commentary on AI demand durability and geopolitical exposure can justify a stock that has already re-rated sharply higher.
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