TFI International heads into its July 8 earnings release with a notable insider selling cluster at the top — and a stock that has shed 10% over the past month.
The most striking signal ahead of the print is the CEO's own positioning. Alain Bedard, Chairman, President and CEO, sold shares across multiple transactions in late May and early June — offloading roughly 45,000 shares between May 28 and June 9 at prices ranging from CAD 206 to CAD 232. The CFO, David Saperstein, added his own sales in the same window, selling around 8,000 shares at approximately CAD 159–201. In aggregate, insiders reported net sales of roughly CAD 19.4 million over the 90-day window. Bedard retains a substantial stake — nearly 6% of shares outstanding — so this does not represent an exit, but the cluster of selling near what were recent highs draws attention ahead of a results release.
The broader picture on short positioning is unambiguous: bears have very little presence here. Short interest is just 0.79% of the free float, down roughly 6% over the past month. Borrow availability is essentially unlimited — the lending pool is barely touched. The cost to borrow has tripled over the past month to 1.48%, a notable move in percentage terms, but in absolute terms it remains negligible and well within normal range. There is no meaningful short squeeze dynamic in play, and the lending market signals no conviction from the bear camp.
The fundamental debate is more interesting than the positioning suggests. EPS momentum is strong — forward estimates have been revised higher over both the 30- and 90-day windows, ranking in the 85th and 90th percentiles respectively. The PE multiple has compressed roughly four points over the past week to just below 23.5x, while EV/EBITDA has drifted down to 11.1x. After the previous Q1 print in April, the stock rallied 4.3% on the day but then gave back 3.5% over the following five sessions — a pattern of selling the news into strength. The stock's closest peers — ODFL, JBHT, KNX and SAIA — all fell between 1% and 3% on the week, so the softness in TFII is not entirely company-specific. Cross-border freight exposure and tariff uncertainty on the US-Canada corridor remain the sector-wide overhang.
The Q2 print will test whether the strong forward estimate revisions reflect genuine freight demand recovery, or whether the CEO's selling near recent highs was the more accurate read on near-term momentum.
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