Block, Inc. heads into its August 5 earnings with short sellers in full retreat, analysts upgrading in clusters, and options traders running notably light on hedges — a rare convergence of positive signals for a stock that spent much of 2025 under pressure.
The short-side story has shifted decisively. Short interest has fallen nearly 12% over the past week to 3.4% of the free float — down from around 21 million shares at the end of June to just under 18.6 million. The trend is consistent: every session since June 26 has seen fewer shares short. This is not a one-day event; it is a sustained unwind. The lending market confirms there is no tension here — availability is extraordinarily loose at over 5,400% of short interest, meaning there are roughly 54 shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. Cost to borrow has drifted down to 0.48%, near the low end of its 30-day range. Nothing in the borrow market suggests short sellers face any urgency to cover; they are choosing to reduce exposure.
Options positioning reinforces the picture. The put/call ratio at 0.55 is running slightly below its 20-day average of 0.57, and the z-score of –0.61 places it comfortably in the middle of the annual range — well below the 52-week peak of 0.89. Investors are not paying up for downside protection. The setup looks measured rather than cautious.
The Street has turned sharply more constructive, and the analyst activity of the past two weeks tells a clear story. Barclays initiated coverage this week at Overweight. Piper Sandler flipped from Underweight to Overweight at the end of June, doubling its price target from $58 to $100 — an unusually dramatic reversal. Baird raised its target from $90 to $100 while maintaining Outperform. Morgan Stanley nudged its Overweight target higher in late May. The consensus is now firmly buy, with a mean price target of $91.91 against a current price of $77.56 — implying roughly 18% upside from here. The bull case rests on 22% gross profit growth, expanding Cash App engagement with 59 million monthly transacting actives, and the operating leverage that comes from tighter integration between Square and Cash App. Bears flag take rate compression, competition from OS-level wallets, and regulatory uncertainty around buy-now-pay-later as structural drags. But the balance of opinion has moved. More analysts have raised targets in the past six weeks than at any point visible in the recent record.
Institutional ownership adds a layer of interest. Capital Research and Management added 4.6 million shares in the period to June 30 — a 28% increase in its position, bringing it to 3.4% of shares outstanding. Point72 added over 3 million shares in Q1. T. Rowe Price added another 2 million in May. These are active, discretionary managers adding meaningful size, not passive index drift. Founder and largest shareholder Jack Dorsey holds 8.1% with no reported change, providing a stable anchor. One counterpoint: director Anthony Eisen has been selling consistently — roughly 6,000 shares most trading days through June and into July, totalling well over $4 million in disclosed sales. Brian Grassadonia, head of a division, sold 43,000 shares on July 2 for $3.5 million. The insider net over 90 days is technically positive at $27.6 million, but that figure reflects equity grants and vesting activity; the directional selling from Eisen stands out as a steady offsetting pressure.
The stock is up 14% over the past month and 2% on the week to $77.56, with the ORTEX short score having dropped to 35.7 from 38.4 ten days ago — a falling short score consistent with the unwind story. Correlated peers painted a mixed picture this week: PAY surged 18.7% on the week, FLYW gained 5.4%, while PRTH fell 2.4%. Block's 2% weekly gain is modest relative to the best performers in the group, though the month-long momentum is stronger than most. The PE multiple has expanded to 17.2x on a 30-day basis, and EV/EBITDA has moved up to 9.2x — both re-rating in line with the price improvement but not yet stretched.
With Q2 results due August 5, the debate narrows to execution: whether gross profit growth is tracking toward that 22% bull target and whether Cash App engagement numbers hold through a quarter that included continued macro uncertainty. The prior earnings print on May 7 delivered a 5.7% one-day gain; the June event saw a 2% decline. The next print resolves whether the recent analyst enthusiasm finds confirmation in the numbers.
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