JSW — Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa — gave back last week's bounce, slipping 1.5% across five sessions to PLN 25.01, as the brief relief rally faded and the structural bear case reasserted itself through both price and the lending market.
The borrow picture has worsened again after a fleeting loosening. Availability tightened back to just 6.0% on Thursday — down from 9.9% at the start of the week — meaning roughly sixteen shares are lent out for every one still available. That is almost identical to the conditions that prevailed before last week's temporary easing. The 52-week low of 3.8%, set on June 29, is not far away. Cost to borrow reinforces the picture: it climbed to 10.8%, up 12% on the week and 56% above where it traded a month ago. In May, CTB sat in a quiet 8.3–8.5% corridor. The move from that range to above 10% reflects sustained and growing demand for borrows — not a transient spike.
The ORTEX short score is now the highest on record for this name, reaching 83.7 — up from 82.5 a week ago and from roughly 73 six months ago. That score draws on multiple inputs. The dtc rank and utilization rank both sit in the bottom 4th percentile of the universe, meaning shorts are heavily committed and difficult to unwind quickly. The 30-day EPS momentum score has fallen to zero — the weakest possible reading — flagging that recent analyst estimate revisions have turned firmly negative even as the 90-day EPS momentum score holds near the top of the range at the 96th percentile. That divergence is meaningful: the longer-term earnings revision trend looked constructive, but the most recent analyst moves have reversed it. Price-to-book is 0.48 and EV/EBITDA is running at 2.5x — deeply discounted multiples that reflect the market's skepticism about near-term earnings recovery, not a value trap argument.
Analyst data from late May carries a mean price target of PLN 22.25 — below the current price of PLN 25.01. That data is marked stale at 44 days old, so it should be treated with caution rather than precision. What it does capture is directional: the Street was not pricing in a recovery even before the most recent leg lower in EPS estimates. BlackRock added around 35,000 shares through June, and Vanguard made a small addition, but the ownership story is dominated by the Polish State Treasury at 55% — a holder that does not trade on short-term price signals and provides no read-through on institutional sentiment.
With Q1 results out in May posting a 2.4% single-day decline before recovering over five sessions, and the next earnings event scheduled for August 20, the question going into that print is whether the recent collapse in 30-day EPS momentum translates into a formal downgrade cycle — or whether the 90-day revision trend reasserts itself as the base for consensus. The lending market's inability to loosen meaningfully, even after a week when the stock recovered nearly 6%, is the clearest signal that the structural short position remains intact.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open JSW on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
