CRWV enters the week of July 12 with short interest still accelerating — but the borrow market sending a contradictory signal that makes this setup genuinely interesting.
The short rebuild that began in early July has not stopped. Estimated shares short reached 195,193 by July 9, up 34% in a single day and more than 337% on the week. To anchor that in context: this is the same stock that had roughly 53,600 shares short at the start of July, after a sharp collapse from the elevated levels seen at the end of June. The percentage-of-float figure remains uncalculable from the current snapshot — float data isn't available for this listing — but the direction of travel is unambiguous. Short interest has now more than tripled in a week, continuing the rebuilding trend flagged in last week's note.
The borrow market, however, is telling a different story. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply, dropping 35% on the week to 2.72% — its lowest reading in the available history, well below the 4.2–5.0% range that prevailed through most of June and early July. That divergence matters. Short interest is rising fast, but the cost of maintaining those positions is falling, not rising. That combination points to supply loosening in the lending pool at the same time demand for borrows is picking up. There is no squeeze pressure implied here — quite the opposite.
The stock itself has partially recovered. After sliding roughly 16% in the week covered by the previous note, CRWV clawed back 4.2% over the past week to close at CAD 16.88 on July 10, though it remains down about 10% on the month. The one-day move on July 10 was a modest -0.5%, suggesting the rebound has lost momentum near current levels. The ORTEX short score has crept up to 29.6, its highest reading of the past two weeks, though the absolute level remains low — this is not a name flashing extreme short-side stress.
The factor picture adds texture to the bear case. EPS momentum scores are weak — ranked in just the 6th percentile on 30-day momentum and the 18th on 90-day — despite the company ranking in the 83rd percentile on EPS surprise, meaning it beats estimates when it reports but analysts keep cutting forward numbers between prints. Quality remains the structural concern: a recent stock-score note put the quality pillar at just 32, reflecting negative ROA, negative free cash flow, and a stressed balance sheet. Forward EPS momentum is also slipping, with the 12-month forward year-on-year increase ranked only in the 26th percentile. On the ownership side, several of the largest named holders — including co-founders Brian Venturo and Brannin McBee — have reported reductions in recent filings, with Venturo down over 7 million shares and McBee down over 2 million. That insider selling trend is worth noting alongside the short rebuild.
The next scheduled earnings event is August 6. The one prior result with reaction data showed a -1.9% move on the day followed by a +6% recovery over five days — a pattern that offered little comfort to those positioned short through the print. With shorts rebuilding into that event and borrow costs easing rather than tightening, the setup heading into August will be worth watching closely.
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