Three signals aligned on GM in the past week. Short interest, cost to borrow, and options positioning are all moving in the same direction — and earnings are eight days away.
Short interest jumped 23.4% in a single session on July 10. It now stands at 2.9% of free float — up 26% over the past month. In absolute terms, roughly 26.9 million shares are currently short.
That is still a modest level by most standards. But the pace of the build is the story. Bears added positions aggressively as the July 21 print approaches.
Cost to borrow has followed. It rose 22.8% week-over-week to 0.47%, and is up 87% over the past month. The lending market remains very loose — availability is effectively unconstrained at current short levels — so the CTB move reflects demand pressure rather than any supply squeeze.
The options pulse flagged a put-call ratio hitting 2.32 sigma on July 9. The current PCR sits at 0.63, near the lower end of its 52-week range of 0.58–1.10. That means calls still outnumber puts in aggregate — but the sigma spike indicates an unusual burst of put buying within a short window. Pre-earnings hedging is the most straightforward read.
GM's last four earnings releases all produced negative 1-day moves, ranging from -1.2% to -1.7%. That track record gives put buyers a statistical basis for their positioning.
The analyst community remains firmly on the other side. JP Morgan's Ryan Brinkman raised his target to $110 from $98 on July 8 — covered in the previous ORTEX note. Citigroup sits at $131. The consensus mean is $95.85, roughly 23% above the current price of $77.85.
The factor picture adds one more wrinkle. The 12-month forward EPS estimate sits in the 90th percentile for year-on-year growth. But 30-day EPS momentum scores just 36 — meaning near-term estimate revisions have softened even as the longer-term growth story holds.
Mary Barra sold over $8.4 million of stock across three tranches in June at prices around $85 — above where the stock trades today. That context is worth noting, though these trades registered low significance scores and may reflect pre-scheduled plans.
The July 21 print is the focal point. Bears are building. Analysts are raising targets. The gap between the two is wide — and earnings will go a long way toward resolving it.
Data summary
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