Three bearish signals have converged on CW within 48 hours. The put-call ratio, short interest, and cost to borrow are all moving in the same direction — and the options market is flashing the loudest warning of all.
The put-call ratio for Curtiss-Wright hit 1.47 on July 13. That is the highest reading in 52 weeks. The 20-day average sits at 1.30. The z-score is 2.13 — well into extreme territory. Options traders are buying more than twice as many defensive contracts as calls. The stock fell 1.9% on the same day.
For context, the 52-week low PCR was 0.13. The current reading is nearly twelve times that floor, capturing a dramatic shift in sentiment since early 2026.
Short interest rose 10.2% in a single session on July 10, reaching 2.24% of free float. Over the past month, the position has grown 24%. While 2.24% is not extreme on its own, the acceleration matters. The monthly increase is the sharpest since at least early June.
Earnings land on August 5. Short sellers are adding exposure ahead of that date.
The cost to borrow rose 52% over the past week, reaching 0.51%. It is the highest CTB reading since late June. That said, availability remains very loose — at roughly 4,974%, there is abundant supply in the lending pool. The borrow squeeze story is not here yet. The CTB move reflects rising demand for shorts, not a constrained supply.
Citigroup raised its price target to $793 on July 1, maintaining a Neutral rating. The current stock price is $740. The mean analyst target is $798 — about 8% above the close. Analysts are not alarmed, but they are not bullish either. Both Citi and Stifel hold Hold/Neutral ratings.
The bull case rests on 14% EPS growth, 17.5% Defense Electronics revenue growth, and raised full-year guidance. The bear case flags $50 million in delayed orders, CR-related uncertainty, and stretched valuation — the P/E sits near 47x and EV/EBITDA at 32x.
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