CPRI has lost 14% in a single week, falling to $16.68, and shorts have returned with conviction — reversing what looked like a meaningful unwind just days ago.
The prior note, published Friday, described short sellers quietly pulling back, with SI down to 6.7% of free float over the prior month. That picture has changed. Short interest jumped nearly 20% in one week, climbing back to 8% of free float — roughly 9.6 million shares. That reversal erases much of the late-June and early-July unwind. The rebuild is notable because it happened into a falling stock, not against a squeeze. Borrow conditions remain extremely accommodating: availability runs at 904%, meaning roughly nine shares sit in the lending pool for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow has actually eased, down 32% on the week to 0.40% — a historically cheap rate that offers new shorts very little friction. Options traders have edged slightly more defensive, with the put/call ratio at 0.43 against a 20-day mean of 0.39, but the z-score of 0.5 means this is barely above neutral — the options market is not signalling alarm, just mild caution. Positioning looks rebuilding rather than extreme.
The Street is becoming harder to read as bulls and bears debate the same facts from opposite sides. JPMorgan has held its Overweight rating but cut its target to $29 after last quarter's print — still the most bullish house at the table by a wide margin. This week, Wells Fargo slashed its target to $16, now sitting essentially at the current price, while maintaining its Equal-Weight rating. The mean analyst target across the group is $25.22, implying more than 50% upside from current levels — but that gap reflects entrenchment, not conviction. Most of the Street has been cutting targets since May earnings, and no one has upgraded. The bull case centres on a Michael Kors brand recovery and cost discipline at the portfolio level. The bear case is blunt: Michael Kors revenue fell 8% in the most recent quarter, Jimmy Choo was down 4%, and promotional pressure in the outlet channel shows no sign of abating. At a trailing P/E of around 8x and EV/EBITDA near 10x, the multiples look cheap in isolation — but they have been compressing for a reason.
Institutional positioning offers one mildly constructive data point. BlackRock added over 1.1 million shares in the quarter through June 30, lifting its stake to 12.4% of shares outstanding. Greenlight Capital, the David Einhorn-linked fund, holds a 4.3% position, with a modest add in the most recent filing period. These are patient, value-oriented holders — not the kind to chase momentum. CEO John Idol sold roughly $1.4 million of stock at prices between $19.73 and $20.76 in mid-June as part of award-related transactions, though those were paired with new equity grants and carry limited signalling weight.
Recent earnings history adds a wrinkle. The last print in late May delivered a one-day gain of nearly 7%, a relief rally after a period of deep pressure — but the stock gave back all of that move and more within five days. The prior quarter produced a one-day drop of almost 7%. The pattern is volatile and mean-reverting in both directions. The next earnings date is August 5.
With the stock now trading at a 35% discount to mean analyst targets and shorts at an eight-week high, the August 5 print becomes less a question of whether the brand turnaround is working and more a question of whether this quarter's numbers are bad enough to break the last few bulls still standing on the Street.
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