Lucid Group absorbed a brutal week — down 23% to $4.62 — yet short sellers barely flinched, leaving the stock carrying nearly 20% of its float in short interest as Q2 earnings approach.
The price collapse was the week's defining event, but the short positioning story behind it is what makes this setup worth examining. SI % of free float edged slightly lower to 19.6%, down roughly 4.6% week-on-week, but that reduction is modest against the severity of the sell-off. Shorts who rode the stock down from the $6 range have meaningful paper gains, and the modest cover suggests few felt compelled to lock them in. Availability has opened up to 6.4% from near-zero levels seen as recently as July 9, when the entire lending pool was essentially exhausted. That is still extremely tight — roughly one share available for every fifteen already borrowed. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply from its June 30 peak of 148% to 24%, confirming that the most acute squeeze pressure has passed, but borrowing remains expensive relative to the broader EV peer universe. The ORTEX short score is 81, down from 86 earlier in the month but still deep in bearish territory, ranking in the first percentile of the entire universe for both short score and availability tightness.
Options positioning adds texture but not a sharp divergence. The put/call ratio of 1.31 is almost exactly in line with its 20-day average of 1.33, with a z-score of -0.33 — neither unusually bearish nor unusually calm. What stands out is the structural level itself: a PCR persistently above 1.3 reflects a market that has been consistently buying downside protection for weeks. With the 52-week high at 2.42 and the low at 0.10, there is substantial room for that ratio to move in either direction ahead of the August 4 earnings print. For now, options traders are neither panicking nor easing off.
The Street has been cutting targets steadily. RBC Capital lowered its target to $7 from $8 on July 13, maintaining a Sector Perform rating — the freshest move, and one that still implies 51% upside from current levels. That gap between $4.62 and the $8.30 consensus mean target is striking, but it reflects a situation where most analysts acknowledge the potential while remaining cautious on execution. Citigroup holds a Buy with a $14 target; TD Cowen sits at Hold with $7; Morgan Stanley carries Underweight. The direction of travel across the group has been uniformly downward since the company suspended 2026 guidance during a leadership transition. The bull case rests on the Gravity SUV launch and a partnership with UBER, which now holds nearly 10% of shares. The bear case is blunt: guidance withdrawal, Q1 delivery miss, execution risk, and a new CEO who has not yet established credibility with investors.
The ownership structure sharpens the tension. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund holds 45% of the company and has not moved its position. UBER added 24 million shares in Q1, bringing its stake to 9.7% — a strategic vote of confidence that contrasts sharply with the direction of the stock. Insiders have been net sellers throughout the year, with the Acting CEO and Acting CFO both offloading shares in early June at prices well above the current level, though the amounts were small in absolute terms. The leadership configuration — acting CEO, acting CFO, suspended guidance — remains the clearest execution risk on the board.
Earnings on August 4 frame the next decision point. The prior three prints each delivered a negative day-one reaction, ranging from -3.2% to -10.6%, with a five-day follow-through that was also negative in two of the three cases. Whether the stock has already priced in continued bad news after a 23% weekly decline, or whether a fourth consecutive miss resets expectations further, is the question the market will answer then.
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