XTB has spent July doing what bears least want to see — rallying hard while the borrow market moves entirely the wrong way for short sellers.
The stock closed at PLN 130.70 on July 14, up nearly 8% on the week and almost 19% over the past month. That move comes as the ORTEX short score has drifted steadily lower, from 27.9 at the start of July to 26.4 by mid-month — a gentle but consistent easing of short-side pressure that mirrors the price action almost perfectly.
The lending market tells a clear story about retreating conviction from the bear camp. Availability has expanded dramatically, now running at over 3,200% — meaning more than 32 shares are available to borrow for every one currently lent out. That is well above even the 52-week minimum of 537%, which itself was already loose territory. Fewer than 3% of lendable shares are actually out on loan. Cost to borrow has fallen roughly 15% over the past week to 0.85%, extending a multi-month slide from the brief spike above 3% seen in mid-June. The lending market is as relaxed as it has been all year, and the direction of travel — availability rising, CTB falling — signals that existing short positions are being closed, not added to.
The Street is broadly constructive, though some data here warrants caution. Three analysts carry buy ratings with a consensus mean target around PLN 110 — notably below the current price of PLN 130.70. That discount to consensus is worth noting but may reflect target staleness rather than a genuine bearish tilt; no recent analyst changes have been filed. Factor scores paint a more bullish picture: XTB ranks in the 92nd percentile on analyst recommendation differentiation and dividend quality, and in the 88th percentile on short score rank — meaning the lack of short pressure is itself a top-decile reading relative to the broader universe. The analyst recommendation spread ranks among the most positive in the market even without fresh target upgrades to point to.
Ownership is anchored by founder Jakub Zablocki at just under 36% of shares, a stake that has not moved in recent reporting. Norges Bank and a cluster of Polish pension funds round out the register, with BlackRock adding nearly 98,000 shares through June. Insider activity in recent months has been confined to routine equity awards across the executive board in May — low-significance, zero-cost grants that carry no signal either way. The one notable insider transaction in the record is Zablocki's sale of over 9.4 million shares at PLN 78 in May 2025, a transaction completed roughly 40% below where the stock trades today.
Earnings history adds a layer of complexity to the momentum story. The last four reporting events produced moves of -5.1%, +3.6%, -3.6%, and -3.8% on the day — a pattern of sharp but directionally mixed single-day reactions, with an average five-day drift that has been marginally negative. Q2 results flagged as strong in recent coverage, and the next scheduled event is August 28. Among close peers, QRS gained 6.6% on the week while SAVE and SQN added less than 1%, suggesting XTB's move has been stock-specific rather than a broad brokerage sector re-rating.
The August 28 earnings date is the clearest near-term focal point — whether the stock can hold its premium to analyst consensus targets while the market waits for the next quarterly print is the question that will define the next six weeks.
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