AST SpaceMobile enters the week with a fresh analyst catalyst colliding head-on with a renewed price collapse — and short sellers who appear largely unbothered by either.
The covering that began on July 10 has effectively stalled. Last week's note flagged a sharp five-million-share reduction as the first meaningful unwind in over a month. Since then, short interest has crept back up — 64.3 million shares as of July 16, or 23.2% of the free float, a slight tick higher from the mid-week low of 63.2 million. The monthly picture still shows a 23% build from June's starting point. That context matters: this is a position that held through a 37% price decline over the past month, and the partial covering seen last week has not been followed through. The ORTEX short score has edged down from 70.5 to 70.0 over the past week — a marginal softening, but nothing that signals a structural change in bear conviction.
The borrow market is the one area that has genuinely eased, though the picture is volatile. Availability recovered to 24.4% on July 16, up sharply from the near-zero readings of 5.2%–5.8% seen on July 6–8, when the lending pool was essentially fully drained. The 52-week low in availability is 5.2% — reached just ten days ago. Cost to borrow has also climbed, reaching 1.25% on July 16, up 20% on the week and 60% over the past month. That combination — rising borrowing costs alongside intermittent near-zero availability — describes a lending market that is structurally tight even when it temporarily loosens. Options positioning adds little urgency: the put/call ratio is 0.49, barely above its 20-day average of 0.46 and nowhere near defensive territory. Call volume continues to dominate, which is striking given that the stock has lost 25% over the past week alone.
The most significant Street development this week is Piper Sandler's initiation at Overweight with a $100 target, reported July 16 — directly into a collapsing stock. At $55.01, that target implies 82% upside from current levels. The broader analyst consensus sits at Hold, with three buys and six holds, and no outright sells. Deutsche Bank downgraded to Hold back in late May with a $106 target, while UBS and B. Riley both carry Neutral ratings with targets in the $80–$85 range. Barclays maintains an Underweight at $65 — currently the closest target to the actual price. The spread between the bull camp ($100–$106 range) and the bears ($45–$65 range) is unusually wide, reflecting genuine disagreement about whether ASTS's direct-to-device constellation can close the gap on Starlink before capital requirements overwhelm the balance sheet. Forward EPS estimates have been revised sharply higher — a 386% year-on-year lift according to the ORTEX score data — yet the stock trades on an EV/EBITDA of 241x, down from over 1,000x thirty days ago as the price has compressed. The price-to-book of 10.1x has compressed roughly five turns over the past month.
The insider picture warrants attention. The CEO, Abel Avellan, sold 2.5 million shares on June 22 at $58.68 — a $146.7 million transaction. That sale came after a cluster of executive disposals on May 29, when the CFO, COO, President, and Chief Accounting Officer all sold simultaneously, with the stock then trading above $113. In aggregate, insiders have sold a net $448.7 million of stock over the past 90 days with no corresponding purchases. Those sales occurred at prices ranging from $58 to $127 — well above the current $55. The stock has since fallen below the CEO's most recent sale price, a level that tends to attract scrutiny in stories where insider conviction is already a debated topic.
The two most prominent institutional holders offer a different read. BlackRock added 2.6 million shares as of June 30, bringing its stake to 4.9% of shares. State Street also added 1.6 million shares in the same period. These are passive-leaning flows, but they represent real demand at prices that were materially higher than today. Alphabet and AT&T remain static holders with no reported changes — strategic stakes rather than active portfolio management.
The next scheduled catalyst is August 11 earnings. The two most recent prints produced day-one moves of -10.2% and -2.8% respectively, with the June 12 result extending to a -25% five-day move. That pattern — initial weakness accelerating over the following week — is the shape the bears will be pointing to as the date approaches. With availability still oscillating between tight and near-zero on a daily basis, and a short position that has proven remarkably sticky through a 37% drawdown, the August 11 print is the event that will most directly test whether the covering that began last week was the start of something or simply a pause.
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