Why this matters — Three distinct ORTEX data points have converged on NSC in the past 48 hours. Short interest, cost to borrow, and options sentiment all shifted sharply just ahead of Thursday's earnings call.
Short interest collapsed. SI dropped 21% over the past month to 8.48 million shares, now just 3.78% of the free float. The decline accelerated this week, with shares short falling 2.8% in seven days. This marks a significant unwinding of bearish positions heading into the quarterly report.
Borrowing costs evaporated. Cost to borrow plunged 66% in one week to 0.15%, down from 0.46% on April 21st. The CTB also fell 59% over the past month. This sharp drop suggests lenders see minimal risk in NSC shares and demand to short has dried up.
Put buyers dominated. The put-call ratio spiked to 1.55 on April 21st, near the 52-week high of 1.60. The PCR sits more than two standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 1.29. Traders loaded up on downside protection or bearish bets ahead of the April 24th earnings release.
NSC experienced a similar convergence in late March. Short interest fell sharply between March 23rd and 24th, dropping from 10.8 million shares to 8.7 million. Cost to borrow spiked briefly during that period before normalizing. That unwinding preceded the current price rally of 6.1% over the past month.
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