FLG reports Q1 earnings on April 28 with short interest at 15.1% of float and a modest bullish tilt in the options market. Analysts have warmed to the regional bank in recent weeks, though insider selling continues.
Short interest stood at 62.8 million shares as of April 23, representing 15.1% of the free float. The position has ticked down 0.6% over the past week and 0.5% over the past day. Days to cover remains elevated at 15.5 based on recent volume. Cost to borrow fell 14.4% over the week to 0.37%, while utilization dropped sharply to 12.1% from 13.6% a week earlier—well below the 52-week high of 71.7%. Borrow conditions remain accommodative heading into the print.
The put/call ratio sits at 0.93, modestly above the 20-day mean of 0.90 and registering a z-score of 0.87. The ratio has climbed from a 52-week low of 0.59 but remains below the 52-week high of 1.18. The market shows a slight defensive tilt, though sentiment has been relatively neutral over the past month.
Eight analysts hold a consensus rating of hold. The mean price target of $15.34 implies 9.3% upside from the current $14.03 close. Truist Securities upgraded FLG to buy from hold on April 7, raising its target to $17 from $13.50. Barclays lifted its target to $16 from $15 the same day while maintaining overweight. Keefe Bruyette upgraded the bank to outperform from market perform on March 13, hiking its target to $16. JP Morgan, RBC Capital, and Morgan Stanley all raised targets in early February following Q4 results. Benzinga's bull case highlights a 44 basis point TCE ratio increase to 8.33% and 29% quarter-over-quarter growth in C&I loan commitments. The bear case points to average loans falling $1.74 billion and period-end deposits declining 4.6%, or $3.2 billion.
FLG trades at a P/E of 16.6, down slightly from a week ago but unchanged over the month. Price-to-book stands at 0.75, down 2.3% over seven days but up 7.4% over 30 days. The stock ranks in the 97th percentile on EPS surprise and the 92nd percentile on analyst recommendation differential, signaling strong recent beats and improving sentiment. The dividend score sits at the 34th percentile.
Insiders sold $1.05 million net over the past 90 days, led by CEO Joseph Otting's $525,000 sale on March 13 at $12.20. CFO Lee Smith sold $28,000 on March 24. Liberty 77 Capital remains the largest holder at 18.0% of shares, unchanged since January. BlackRock added 365,000 shares in Q1 to lift its stake to 10.3%. Vanguard and State Street also added modestly.
The bank reported Q4 results on January 30. Prior earnings prints occurred in late April and late January over the past year. The stock has gained 6.8% over the past month but fell 4.2% over the past week.
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