PBF Energy reports Tuesday with short interest down 39% in a month and its controlling shareholder liquidating $9 million in stock. Analysts recently raised targets but remain cautious, with most holding neutral ratings.
Short interest stands at 13.2 million shares as of April 23, or 11.4% of free float. The position has dropped 39% over the past month, falling sharply from 21.5 million shares in late March. Week-over-week, shorts added 1.6%. Days to cover sits at 3.9 days based on FINRA's latest fortnightly data.
Cost to borrow has eased to 0.43%, down 21% in a week and 59% over the month. Utilisation remains light at 3.1%, well below the 52-week high of 33%.
The put-call ratio hit 0.53 on April 24, the lowest in a year. That's 2.6 standard deviations below the 20-day mean of 0.72. The collapse in put demand suggests options traders are positioning bullishly into the print, or at least unwinding downside hedges.
Analysts do not publish a consensus rating for PBF, though the average price target stands at $42.42, roughly in line with the $40.74 close on April 24. Recent activity has been modestly constructive. Morgan Stanley's Connor Lynagh raised his target to $34 from $27 on April 24 but maintained Underweight. Scotiabank's Betty Zhang lifted her Sector Perform target to $34 from $28 on April 22. BMO Capital's Randy Ollenberger took his Market Perform target to $50 from $43 on April 2, the most bullish move in the recent batch.
PBF trades at 8.0× trailing earnings, up slightly from 13.3× a month ago as the stock fell 19% over that span. EV/EBITDA sits at 4.2×, down from 5.9× thirty days ago. The stock ranks in the 94th percentile on 30-day EPS momentum and the 95th percentile on 90-day EPS momentum, signalling strong estimate revisions heading into the print. It ranks in the 82nd percentile for year-over-year 12-month forward EPS growth.
Insiders sold $205 million net over the past 90 days, driven entirely by 10% shareholder Carlos Slim Helu. Slim offloaded $9.3 million worth of shares in early April alone. Control Empresarial de Capitales, his vehicle, remains the largest holder at 16.5% despite cutting 11.6 million shares in early April. BlackRock added 116,000 shares in Q1 and holds 9.6%. Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, and State Street all increased positions modestly.
PBF last reported on February 12. The stock fell sharply into mid-March, then rallied 10% in the week leading up to this print.
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