Popular Inc. climbed 10% over the month while short sellers trimmed positions and borrowing costs eased. Analysts lifted price targets sharply post-earnings, with four firms raising targets on April 24 alone. Options sentiment remains tilted bullish.
BPOP closed at $147.04 on April 24, up 10.5% over the trailing month. The weekly move was flat at +0.1%. The stock gave back 1.5% on Friday.
Short interest stands at 1.97% of float — minimal by most standards. Shorts covered modestly over the past week, with shares short declining 1.5% to 1.31 million. Cost to borrow fell 26.6% week-over-week to 0.50%, down from 0.68% on April 16. The borrow rate spiked to 2.36% on March 18 but has since normalized. Utilisation sits at 0.36%, well below the 52-week high of 6.11% and down from 0.73% on April 14. Lending conditions remain highly accommodative.
The put-call ratio registered 0.24 on April 24, sitting 1.4 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.31. The z-score of -1.40 indicates a pronounced tilt toward call activity. PCR has ranged from 0.08 to 0.61 over the past year. The current reading ranks near the low end, suggesting bullish positioning by options traders.
The consensus price target sits at $169, implying 14.9% upside from current levels. Four firms raised targets on April 24 following the company's earnings event. Timur Braziler at UBS lifted his target from $160 to $170, maintaining Buy. Kelly Motta at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised her Outperform target from $155 to $177. Gerard Cassidy at RBC Capital moved to $163 from $141, also maintaining Outperform. Manuel Navas at Piper Sandler increased his Overweight target from $156 to $173. Earlier in April, Timur Braziler at UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and lifted the target from $142 to $160. Jared Shaw at Barclays raised his Overweight target from $175 to $180 on April 7.
Bulls cite strong projected earnings growth — EPS is expected to rise 9% in 2025 and 11% in 2026 — and an upward revision to 2025 net interest income estimates of 9%, driven by a robust Q2 performance. Improving loan growth is seen as a catalyst, particularly among traditional spread lenders. Bears point to reliance on a stable Puerto Rico economic outlook, noting that adverse developments could trigger negative estimate revisions. Stock performance has been modest despite earnings beats, suggesting limited conviction. (Source: Benzinga analyst summaries)
The P/E ratio stands at 10.1x, up 9.6% over the past month. Price-to-book rose 14% in the same period to 1.37x. The one-day moves were negligible. Popular ranks in the 62nd percentile for dividend score and the 85th percentile for EPS surprise. Its short score percentile is 56, indicating roughly median short interest intensity versus peers. Sector score ranks at the 78th percentile.
T. Rowe Price added 101,400 shares in Q1, bringing its stake to 4.36 million shares or 6.7% of the company. Geode Capital added 97,211 shares to 1.41 million. Columbia Management boosted its position by 71,257 shares to 941,349. Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street — the top three holders — made modest adjustments of 37,424, 35,930, and 835 shares respectively.
Insiders sold a net 25,427 shares over the past 90 days, valued at $3.57 million. Independent Director Alejandro Sanchez sold 1,451 shares on February 26 for $204,373 at $140.85. Executive Vice President Manuel Chinea received an equity award of 3,684 shares on February 25, then sold 1,509 shares at $141.31 for $213,237. Executive Vice Presidents Eli Sepulveda, Maria Cristina Gonzalez-Noguera, and Camille Burckhart each sold smaller blocks on the same day, ranging from $9,044 to $133,114. The trades followed the vesting of equity awards and appear routine in nature.
Popular reports next earnings on July 24 at 4:30 PM ET. Analyst revisions have been directionally positive following the most recent print. The P/E multiple has expanded as the stock outpaced earnings growth. Watch for updates on loan growth and net interest margin trajectory in the next release.
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