MOH jumped 18% this week as three major-firm analysts lifted price targets following Q1 results. Short interest rose 2.3% week-on-week, while options flow turned modestly bullish.
MOH closed at $175.94 on April 24, up 0.7% on the day. The stock surged 18.1% over the past week and 24.1% over the month. The sharp move follows a prolonged period of underperformance.
Short interest stands at 3.61 million shares, representing 7.0% of the float as of April 23. The position is near a one-month high, up 2.3% week-over-week and 4.1% over the month. Short shares peaked on April 23 at the highest level since mid-March.
Cost to borrow sits at 0.37%, down 12.7% from a week ago and 2.1% over the month. The CTB reading has compressed from the 0.47% spike seen on April 9. Utilisation sits at 9.2%, well below the 52-week high of 16.4%. The metric has drifted higher since early April, when it touched 7.7%.
The put/call ratio sits at 1.34, down from a 20-day mean of 1.43. The current PCR is 2.4 standard deviations below the mean, indicating a shift toward call-heavy positioning. The 52-week range spans 0.52 to 1.65. The z-score suggests options traders have turned modestly bullish relative to recent weeks.
Analyst price targets average $160.33. Three firms raised targets on April 24 after digesting Q1 results.
A.J. Rice at UBS lifted the target to $180 from $151 while maintaining Neutral. Andrew Mok at Barclays raised his Underweight-rated target to $161 from $133. Erin Wright at Morgan Stanley bumped the Equal-Weight target to $146 from $128.
The March update cycle was harsher. Stephen Baxter at Wells Fargo downgraded MOH to Equal-Weight from Overweight on February 20 and slashed the target to $141 from $208. Scott Fidel at Goldman Sachs cut his Neutral target to $124 from $167 on February 12.
The bull case centers on Molina's Medicaid footprint — over 5 million members across California, New York, Texas, and Washington. Management has targeted 110+ basis points of MLR improvement and planned 2026 pricing actions. The Marketplace segment correction could unlock cost leverage.
The bear case points to the Q4 miss, where EPS came in at negative $2.75, $3 below consensus. Medicaid margins are forecast to compress to 1.2% in 2026. Enrollment is expected to decline 2.6% year-over-year. Projected 2026 and 2027 EPS have been cut to $5.04 and $7.66 respectively.
The P/E ratio sits at 28.3, up 5.9 points over the past 30 days. The price/book multiple is 1.82, up 0.34 over the month. EV/EBITDA stands at 12.4, up 1.6 over 30 days. The valuation re-rating reflects the recent price surge.
EPS momentum ranks in the 25th percentile over 30 days and the 3rd percentile over 90 days. EPS surprise ranks 16th percentile. The 12-month forward EPS growth increase ranks 55th percentile. The dividend score ranks 64th percentile despite no dividend history. Short score ranks 32nd percentile. The sector score ranks 79th percentile, suggesting relative strength within managed care.
BlackRock added 3.1 million shares in Q1, bringing its stake to 6.1 million (11.7% of shares). Vanguard added 575,000 shares to hold 6.1 million (11.7%). State Street added 467,000 shares to 2.0 million (3.9%). Victory Capital added 447,000 shares to 1.4 million (2.7%). Dimensional added 189,000 shares to 1.1 million (2.2%). FMR added 734,000 shares to 2.8 million (5.4%) as of late February.
8 Knots Management initiated a 1.1 million share position (2.2% of shares) in Q4 2025.
Net insider selling totaled $2.6 million over 90 days. President/CEO Joseph Zubretsky sold 8,597 shares for $1.32 million on February 27 at $154.05. CFO Mark Keim sold 2,308 shares for $355,547. COO James Woys sold 1,313 shares for $202,268. Chief Legal Officer Jeff Barlow sold 1,638 shares for $252,334. Executive VP Debra Bacon sold 716 shares for $110,300.
Independent Director Richard Zoretic bought 800 shares for $100,128 on February 11 at $125.16.
Molina has multiple earnings events logged in April 2026, with the most recent on April 23 and April 22. Historical price reaction data is not available for these prints. The next earnings event is scheduled for May 6, 2026.
The May 6 earnings call will be the next catalyst. Investors will scrutinize Medicaid margin trends, enrollment trajectory, and management's updated full-year guidance. The analyst community has shown willingness to revise both up and down sharply based on quarterly performance. Short interest sits near recent highs, and the options market has shifted toward a more constructive stance.
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