CRS reports on April 29 with short interest falling sharply and analysts still hunting for upside in a stock that's climbed 7% over the past month but given back 4% in the last week.
Short interest has tumbled 35% over the past month to just 4.1% of the float, the lowest level since early March. Borrow cost has edged higher to 0.49%, up 34% month-over-month, but utilisation remains thin at 3.9% — well below the 52-week high of 17.7%. The retreat suggests bears who piled in earlier this year have backed away, though the rising cost to borrow hints at pockets of friction on the supply side. Options positioning has turned mildly defensive heading into the print, with the put/call ratio running above its recent average at 0.77. That marks a shift from earlier in April, when call buyers dominated the flow.
JP Morgan lifted its target from $394 to $465 on April 20, keeping its Overweight rating intact. Keybanc followed on April 9 with a raise to $453, also maintaining Overweight. Wells Fargo initiated coverage on April 1 at Equal-Weight with a $400 target, while Susquehanna started at Positive with a $470 target in early March. The Street sees upside — consensus sits near $439, roughly 3% above Friday's close of $427 — but the range of views is wide. Bulls point to the 23% quarter-over-quarter jump in aerospace bookings and the Specialty Alloys margin expansion to 32%, even with planned maintenance downtime eating into output. Bears counter that the segment posted its first sequential decline in price and EBITDA per pound since early fiscal 2023, and that medical sales fell 20% quarter-over-quarter as distributors worked through inventory. The 30% gap between nickel capacity and demand adds another layer of uncertainty around pricing.
Institutional activity has been mixed. FMR added 527,000 shares in Q1, lifting its stake to 7.4% of the company. Invesco and Geode also topped up positions. Lone Pine initiated a 2.6% stake in the quarter, a fresh vote of confidence. Insider selling outweighed buying over the past 90 days, with net sales of roughly 102,000 shares valued at $33 million. General Counsel James Dee sold over $4 million in late February, and President Brian Malloy offloaded shares in December. After the last print in late January, the stock fell 4.2% the next day before recovering to close up 5.1% over the following five days — a pattern of initial disappointment followed by a reversal as investors digested the detail.
Close peer ATI is down 6.3% on the week, HWM off 5.2%, and WWD down 7.6%. Carpenter has fared slightly better but still trails the broader peer group's recent performance. The print will test whether the aerospace booking strength and margin discipline can offset the medical headwind and pricing pressure in specialty alloys.
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