ETR reports first-quarter results Wednesday morning with short interest up 39% over the past month and fresh analyst upgrades pushing the stock near Street targets — a setup that leaves little room for error.
Short sellers have rebuilt positions aggressively since early April. Shares short climbed to 16.4 million, representing 3.6% of the float. That's the highest level in over a month, though borrow remains cheap at 0.47% and utilisation sits at just 5%. Options positioning has turned modestly more defensive into the print, with the put/call ratio running above its recent average at 0.46 — roughly 1.8 standard deviations above the 20-day mean. The stock gained 11% over the past month but gave back 1.6% this week, closing Friday at $113.64.
Analyst activity has picked up sharply in the run-up to earnings. Truist initiated coverage with a Buy and $130 target on April 21, the same day Keybanc lifted its target to $123. Jefferies raised to $131 from $114 on April 20, citing the company's raised growth guidance of "greater than 8%" through 2028 and a 13% industrial sales growth rate driven by new Arkansas customers. The $3 billion increase in capital spending — entirely for incremental generation — underpins the bull case that rate-base expansion can sustain mid-to-high single-digit earnings growth. Barclays, BMO and Mizuho all moved targets higher in the past month as well. Not all the Street is convinced: Seaport downgraded to Neutral from Buy on April 20, a reminder that the stock has historically traded at a relative discount and operates in tougher regulatory jurisdictions than peers. The consensus target now sits at $117.78, just 4% above the current price.
Valuation has re-rated higher. The stock trades at 24.8× trailing earnings, up from 24.3× a month ago, and 2.7× book value. EV/EBITDA has compressed to 12.3×, down slightly over the past month. Factor scores show strength in dividend quality (94th percentile) and sector positioning (82nd), but earnings momentum ranks only in the 64th percentile and forward EPS growth in the 24th. Historical reactions have been constructive — the stock rose an average of 3% in the week following the last three prints, including a 4.9% jump after the February report.
Institutional holders have added positions. JPMorgan Asset Management increased its stake by 6 million shares in the first quarter to 18.2 million, now the fourth-largest holder. Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street collectively own over 27% of shares outstanding, with all three adding modestly in recent months. Insider activity has tilted toward selling, with net disposals of 68,000 shares worth $7.1 million over the past 90 days, led by the General Counsel and several senior executives in February.
The print will test whether industrial customer momentum and capital deployment can offset the regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds that have kept the stock trading at a discount to peers despite the recent rally.
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