HUM reports Q1 results April 29 after a powerful month-long rally that has lifted the stock 25% but left the analyst community cautious. Short interest has climbed in lockstep with the price, up 23% over the past month to 5.1% of the float. Borrowing costs remain trivial at under 0.5%, and utilisation sits well below stress levels at 3.8%—short sellers have ample capacity to add. Options positioning is neutral, with the put/call ratio running in line with its 20-day average. The stock rose nearly 5% this week, outpacing managed-care peers UNH and ELV, both of whom also posted single-digit gains.
Analyst activity has reversed sharply in the past month. After a wave of downgrades in mid-February drove targets down by $50–90 per share, three firms—Truist, Wells Fargo, and Evercore—lifted targets in early April as the stock regained ground. Wells Fargo now sits at $227, the highest of the recent cohort, while Goldman Sachs holds a Sell rating with a $158 target set in February. The consensus remains Hold with 16 neutral ratings. Bulls point to the 500-basis-point improvement in Group Medicare Advantage margins and diversified revenue growth across Specialty, Direct-to-Consumer, and pharmacy segments. Bears counter with the $3.5 billion headwind from declining MA Star ratings—a drag Goldman estimates at roughly $22 per share for 2026—plus mounting competition and inadequate reimbursement. Valuation multiples have compressed sharply; the P/E ratio now sits at 20.1×, up four points in a month but still near the low end of recent history.
Institutional holders have been active. Capital Research more than doubled its stake in Q1, adding 3.1 million shares to reach 4.9% ownership, while Vanguard and BlackRock both added modestly. Insider activity has been muted—small tax-related sales and routine equity awards dominate the 90-day ledger, with net purchases totalling just $2 million. Historical earnings reactions show volatility; the stock fell 1.1% the day after the most recent print in late April, but gained 3.4% following the February call and closed 8.4% higher five days later. The company's EPS-surprise ranking sits in the 88th percentile, reflecting a pattern of beating estimates even as margin pressures weigh on forward guidance.
The print will test whether management can articulate a credible path through the MA Star headwind without sacrificing near-term margin gains. The stock is trading 36% above Goldman's Sell target and 6% below Wells Fargo's Equal-Weight view—a range that underscores the divergence in Street expectations around execution risk and the durability of the recent margin improvement.
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