IFF heads into its April 29 earnings with short interest easing and borrow costs dropping — signals that near-term pressure has lightened even as the stock slid 6.2% over the past week. Short interest fell to 3.24% of the float, down 13.6% over the past month. Cost to borrow has tumbled 31.6% in that span to just 0.39%. Utilisation sits at 14.2%, well off the 52-week high of 18.5%. Options positioning has shifted less defensive heading into the print; the put/call ratio dropped to 1.10, running 1.6 standard deviations below its 20-day average.
Wall Street has turned more cautious in recent weeks. Four major firms trimmed targets this month while maintaining positive ratings. Oppenheimer cut to $88 from $97, Barclays lowered to $80 from $91, Citi moved to $90 from $100, and UBS dropped to $75 from $85. The pattern suggests analysts still see upside — the mean target of $88.41 sits 24% above Friday's close of $71.14 — but the April reset reflects concern that the turnaround is taking longer than expected. Bulls point to improving return on capital, which climbed from 2.77% to 5.32% over the past year and is forecast to reach 6.37%. The taste segment grew 6% on a currency-neutral basis. Bears focus on projected revenue falling 5.6% to $10.68 billion following divestitures, and minimal top-line growth even before those exits.
Institutional holders show mixed conviction. BlackRock added 3.6 million shares in the first quarter, UBS Asset Management lifted its stake by 1.9 million, and First Pacific Advisors bought 422,000. Millennium Management, however, added 4 million shares late last year, then sat still in Q1. Insiders netted 192,600 shares sold worth $13.6 million over the past 90 days, mostly routine equity-comp tax withholding. Price reactions to recent prints have been volatile: the February event triggered a 7.8% one-day rally and an 8.1% five-day gain.
The report will reveal whether the ROC improvement is translating into margin gains that offset the divestiture drag, or whether the company's revenue base is deteriorating faster than efficiency can compensate.
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