MGM heads into Wednesday's print with significantly less short pressure than a month ago. Short interest has fallen 11% over the past 30 days to 7.0% of the float. The retreat accelerated over the past week, with positions down another 11%. Borrow costs have moved the other direction — the cost to short MGM jumped 60% over the week to 0.45%, suggesting the remaining bears are paying more to hold their conviction. Utilisation sits at just 11%, well off the 52-week high of 37% hit earlier this year.
Options traders are positioned more bullishly than usual. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.80, nearly two standard deviations below its 20-day average and marking the lowest reading of the past year. The stock is up 6.5% over the month and 2.5% over the past week, closing Friday at $39.54.
Analyst activity has been mixed in the run-up. Wells Fargo trimmed its target from $31 to $30 earlier in the month while maintaining an Underweight rating. UBS and Morgan Stanley also cut targets, though Morgan Stanley raised from $34 to $35 while keeping its Underweight stance. JP Morgan moved to the sidelines in mid-April, lifting its Neutral target from $41 to $42. The consensus target of $42.89 sits roughly 8% above the current price. Bulls point to EBITDAR surging 31% year-over-year, a 35% jump in digital revenue, and strong group bookings for 2026 pointing to sustained demand. Bears counter with weakness on the Strip, where non-luxury properties faltered on weekdays, and management's downward revision to 2025 and 2026 EBITDAR estimates following a 2% miss last quarter.
IAC continues to build its stake. The conglomerate added 1 million shares in early April, bringing its ownership to 26%. The firm also bought 1 million shares in late March at prices between $37 and $37.30. Corvex Management trimmed 37,500 shares in early March but still holds a 2% position. The last four earnings events have produced mixed reactions — the most recent print in early February triggered an 8.5% decline the next day, though the stock recovered to close roughly flat five days later. The February 5 call saw a modest 1.5% pop followed by a 7.4% drop over the following week.
The print will test whether the company can stabilise its Vegas operations while maintaining the momentum in digital and group bookings that management has highlighted. Analysts remain divided on whether the upside in high-margin segments can offset ongoing weekday softness in non-luxury properties.
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