Why this matters — Three distinct ORTEX data types have aligned bearishly on CAR within days. Utilisation at 100%, a record-high put/call ratio, and a cost-to-borrow that nearly doubled in a week all point in the same direction — ahead of earnings on April 29.
Cost to borrow spiked sharply mid-week. CTB hit 8.57% on April 22–23, up roughly 93% from 4.19% on April 17. It eased back to 5.45% by April 24 but remains 30% above its level a week ago and 43% above a month ago. That rapid move reflects short sellers competing for a shrinking pool of lendable shares.
Utilisation has been locked at 100% since April 14 — matching its 52-week high. Every share available to borrow has been lent out. Before April 14, utilisation was running in the 77–88% range. The shift to full saturation is abrupt and sustained.
Options sentiment turned sharply negative. The put/call ratio reached 2.89 on April 23 — a 52-week record and 2.6 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 1.78. By April 24 it had settled to 2.27, still well above the mean. The sustained elevation suggests options traders are actively hedging or expressing downside views.
Analysts are adding pressure. JP Morgan downgraded CAR to Underweight on April 23, while Barclays followed with its own downgrade to Underweight on April 20 — both while raising price targets to $165 and $150, respectively. The consensus sits at Hold with a mean price target of $120.29, a steep discount to the April 24 close of $204. The ORTEX short score stands at 75 out of 100. Factor scores show a utilisation rank of 0 (maximum pressure) and a short score rank of 3rd percentile. Pentwater Capital Management added 3.95 million shares in Q1 2026, bringing its stake to 19.95% — a notable long-side build against the bearish tide.
CAR has a history of violent post-earnings moves. The last two earnings events produced 1-day declines of 20.8% and 21.8%. With earnings due April 29, the current options positioning mirrors pre-event hedging seen in prior cycles.
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