FMX heads into its April 30 earnings report with options traders meaningfully more defensive than they have been all year.
The sharpest pre-earnings signal is in the options market. The put/call ratio jumped to 1.62 on Monday, roughly 1.7 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.42 — a level that reflects a material shift toward downside hedging relative to the stock's recent norm. The prior session's reading of 3.13 was even more extreme, pointing to a concentrated burst of put activity late last week. The stock itself is trading at $113.04, off about 3.7% on the week but up 5% over the past month — a mixed backdrop that helps explain why options traders are guarding against a pullback rather than pressing the rally.
Short sellers, however, have been moving in the opposite direction. Estimated short interest fell sharply — down more than 22% over the past week and roughly 40% from early April peaks near one million shares. Borrow costs remain low at just under 1% annualised, and utilisation is running at 5.7%, well below its 52-week high of 9.4%. That combination — rapidly shrinking short interest, cheap borrow, and plenty of capacity left — suggests short sellers have been covering into the run-up rather than adding pressure. The ORTEX short score of 29 is consistent with a low-conviction short thesis at current levels.
The analyst community has been lifting targets across the board. JP Morgan raised its target to $117 earlier this week while holding its Neutral rating — the most recent bellwether move. UBS (Buy, $122) and Goldman Sachs (Buy, $128) have both raised targets in 2026, reflecting confidence in the underlying business. The consensus mean target of $121.16 implies roughly 7% upside from current levels. Bears point to valuation: at 22.8x trailing earnings and an EV/EBITDA above 52x, the stock prices in a great deal of execution. Bulls counter with the franchise quality — FEMSA's Oxxo convenience store network and its Coca-Cola bottling operations generate durable cash flows — though the EPS surprise factor score at the 24th percentile suggests the company has not consistently cleared the bar in recent quarters.
The limited earnings history with reaction data available shows modest moves around recent prints: a 1.2% gain on the day after the February 2026 release, fading to flat over five days, and a 0.7% drop the day after Q3 2025 results with a 3.2% slide over the following week. The print on April 30 will test whether the recent target upgrades from the Street can be validated by the numbers — and whether the protective options positioning proves well-placed or excessive.
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