Eversource Energy heads into its May 1 Q1 results with short sellers retreating sharply and options traders taking a more cautious stance — a split signal for a utility navigating a crowded bear narrative.
The most notable positioning move is in short interest. Bears pulled back hard on April 24, with SI % of Free Float dropping to 2.16% from 2.48% the day prior — a single-session fall of nearly 13%. That reversal trimmed what had been a steady climb through March and early April, when short interest rose roughly 20% over the month. Borrow conditions offer no friction to new shorts: cost to borrow is essentially negligible at 0.38%, and utilization is just 2% against a 52-week high of 4.95%. Anyone wanting to press the bear case can do so cheaply.
Options, however, moved in the opposite direction. The put/call ratio jumped to 0.32 on April 27 — more than two standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.18. That is a notable spike for a stock whose PCR has hugged very low levels throughout April, suggesting a late burst of demand for downside protection ahead of the earnings release. Days to cover stand at just over four days (per FINRA data), so the options signal, not the short book, is carrying most of the hedging weight into the print.
The debate around Eversource is well-defined. Bulls point to the stock's resilience — up about 1.7% over the past month to $68.72 — and a dividend score in the 88th percentile, reflecting the stock's income appeal for utility investors. Wells Fargo kept its Overweight rating while trimming its target to $74, and BofA maintained a Buy even after cutting to $73. The mean consensus target of $72.33 implies roughly 5% upside from current levels. Bears have the louder recent voice: Seaport Global downgraded to Neutral on April 20, and Scotiabank lowered its target to $63 while keeping an Underperform. The core concern is structural — regulatory pressure on transmission ROEs, potential refunds of approximately $880 million, offshore wind cost overruns, and the need for additional equity issuance are all on the table. JP Morgan, which holds an Underweight, raised its target to $75 in March — a sign that even the bears see limited downside at these levels.
ES has a constructive recent earnings history to lean on. The last three prints each produced a positive one-day move, ranging from roughly 1.5% to 4.5%, with five-day returns running in the same direction. Closest peers PPL, SO, and XEL are all mildly lower on the week, ranging from -0.7% to -2.4%, while Eversource has barely moved — a relative resilience that keeps the setup less pressured than its utility peers. Thursday's print is ultimately a test of whether management can offer credible clarity on the transmission ROE dispute, the Aquarion sale progress, and a capital plan that satisfies a market still wary of equity dilution.
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