Polaris Inc. reports Q1 2026 results today with short sellers backing away from the stock even as options traders retain a cautious lean.
The most striking positioning shift is in short interest. Bears have cut exposure sharply since early April, when nearly 7.6 million shares were short — roughly 13.5% of the float. By April 24, that figure had fallen to 6.7 million shares, or 11.9% of the float. The retreat is notable: utilization has collapsed from above 11% in late March to just 6%, a fraction of its 52-week peak of 47%. Borrow costs have followed, easing to 0.37% — down 31% over the past month — signalling that the lending market sees little stress. The stock itself has recovered 13% in a month to $61.05, and peers have not kept pace: Brunswick Corp fell 2.7% on the week, YETI dropped 4.8%, and Malibu Boats slid 4.5%, making Polaris's outperformance hard to ignore.
Options positioning tells a more cautious story. The put/call ratio is running at 1.05, above its 20-day average of 0.89, though the z-score of 0.70 keeps it well short of an extreme — far below the 52-week high of 1.36 hit in mid-April. Hedging is elevated, but investors are not in panic-protection mode.
The debate heading into the print centres on whether Polaris can defend margins in the face of meaningful tariff headwinds. Bulls point to PG&A sales growth exceeding 20%, the traction of lower-priced models such as the RANGER 500 in drawing first-time buyers, and EPS momentum that ranks in the 81st percentile over both 30 and 90 days. Bears flag harder numbers: management's own guidance implies a 1% sales decline, an operating margin shrinking to roughly 1.9%, and tariff exposure that could exceed $200 million. The analyst community is broadly neutral — 13 Hold ratings, two Outperform — with a mean price target of $65.47 against a current price of $61.05. Wells Fargo initiated in March with an Equal-Weight at $52, below where the stock trades today. The EV/EBIT factor score ranks in the 1st percentile, flagging that valuation on an earnings basis looks stretched relative to the universe.
Insider activity adds one additional data point. The CEO sold roughly $2.3 million of stock in February, with the CFO adding further sales, all transacted around $66–$68 — above the current price. The trades are now two months old and the stock has since pulled back, but the direction of insider activity was clearly distributive into that strength.
The print will therefore test whether Polaris's margin story has deteriorated further than management indicated, or whether the tariff headwind has been sufficiently absorbed to justify the stock's recent recovery relative to a leisure-products peer group that has broadly lagged.
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