Molson Coors Beverage Company heads into its April 30 Q1 print with the most defensive options positioning it has seen in months.
The clearest signal is in the puts market. The put/call ratio jumped to 1.49 on April 27, nearly 2.8 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 1.13 — the most elevated reading since mid-March. That is a sharp move in a short window, and it points to unusually heavy demand for downside protection right at the earnings date. The stock has not given bulls much comfort either: TAP closed at $42.59, down 3.8% on the week and off 1.9% over the past month.
Short interest tells a more nuanced story. Bears have actually been retreating since early April, with short interest falling from a peak near 18.4 million shares in mid-March to around 17.1 million by April 24 — roughly 9.2% of the free float. That is a meaningful unwind, yet the most recent two sessions reversed the trend with a 4.6% one-day pop in shorts. Borrow costs remain negligible at 0.45%, and utilization has more than halved from its 52-week high of 34.6% to just 15.4% — plenty of capacity for new short positions if sentiment deteriorates. Positioning looks cautious rather than squeezed.
The fundamental debate is stark. Bulls point to Molson Coors' $450 million productivity savings program launching in 2026, arguing that reinvested cost cuts and automation investments could drive earnings above depressed Street expectations. The company's EPS surprise history ranks in the 71st percentile, suggesting a track record of beating low bars. Bears counter with the harder reality: North American volumes are declining, analyst consensus has moved decisively negative in recent months, with BofA downgrading to Underperform in late February and both Wells Fargo and UBS trimming targets in early April. Multiple firms now cluster their targets in the low-to-mid $40s — barely above or right at the current price — reflecting little confidence in a near-term recovery. The valuation is not demanding on any measure, with the stock trading at just 8.9x earnings and 0.75x book, but cheap multiples have not been enough of a catalyst for months.
The earnings report will test whether the cost savings story is credible enough to arrest the volume-driven earnings downgrades — and whether management's medium-term growth targets can survive contact with Q1 North American data.
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