Serabi heads into full-year results with upgraded reserves

Serabi Gold reports its full-year 2025 results on 1 May — tomorrow — and the company has handed investors an unusually constructive data point ahead of that release.

On 28 April, just days before the full-year print, Serabi published an updated mineral resource and reserve statement. Consolidated measured and indicated resources rose to 731,000 ounces of gold, with inferred resources adding a further 653,000 oz. For a sub-$350m market-cap gold miner running a single Brazilian mine complex, that is a material lift to the asset base. The stock has gained 21% over the past month — gold's strong run has provided a generous tailwind — though it gave back roughly 2% this week to close at 132p (GBp), slipping further 1.5% on Wednesday alone.

The positioning data tells a story of almost complete disinterest from short sellers, which is actually the most interesting structural feature right now. Short interest is negligible — just 0.007% of the free float, down from a peak of around 0.021% in early April. Availability is effectively uncapped at 9,999% of short interest, meaning the lending pool is vastly larger than the tiny borrowed position. Borrowing costs have eased sharply too: cost to borrow has fallen to 7.2%, down nearly 40% on both a one-week and one-month basis after holding near 12% for most of March and early April. The ORTEX short score is a moderate 31.4, and the lending market reads as entirely loose. There is no short-side pressure here.

The valuation picture is genuinely striking for a profitable gold miner. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed to 2.1x — down more than 0.2x over the past month — placing Serabi among the cheapest gold producers by this measure. The factor score for EV/EBIT ranks in the 96th percentile of the universe, confirming the deep-value read. The P/E ratio is 3.0x. Days-to-cover ranks in the 92nd percentile, reflecting very low short positioning relative to trading volumes. The mean analyst price target is 644p — roughly double the current share price of 132p (trading in pence). That gap warrants a caveat: the stock trades on AIM in pence, and analyst coverage is thin, so the target figure may blend different reporting conventions or reflect a small and potentially dated sample. Treat it directionally rather than precisely.

Institutional ownership is concentrated and has been shifting. Starboard Asset Ltda. is the dominant holder at just under 25% of shares, and added nearly 3.8 million shares in the April reporting period. Hargreaves Lansdown and Aberdeen Group both trimmed positions — the former cutting 1.8 million shares, the latter 820,000. Ruffer, a macro-oriented UK manager, reduced by 400,000 shares. The net picture is one of some rotation: the largest strategic shareholder added meaningfully, while several UK wealth managers lightened. Total institutional holders numbered 96 as of 1 April.

Earnings reactions from the past year have been modest. The Q3 production release last November generated a +9.8% one-day move — the largest in the recent sample. The April 2026 Q4 report produced a flat one-day reaction, though the stock drifted fractionally higher over five sessions. The May 1 full-year print arrives alongside the freshly upgraded resource statement, a combination that raises the informational content of tomorrow's release well above the typical quarterly production update. Whether the full-year financials confirm the operational momentum implied by the reserve upgrade is the number to watch.