Expand Energy is sending mixed signals. The put/call ratio just hit a 52-week high. Yet short sellers are actively covering. And analysts remain firmly bullish.
The PCR reached 1.94 on April 29 — the highest level in the past year. The 20-day average sits at 1.32. That puts the current reading nearly 1.9 standard deviations above the mean. Options market participants are loading up on downside protection at a rate not seen all year.
The shift has been sharp. The PCR was below 0.80 as recently as late March. It has more than doubled in five weeks. That's a significant repositioning in the options market, driven entirely by put accumulation relative to calls.
The options pessimism runs against what short sellers are doing. SI % FF has dropped 14.5% over the past week to 2.76% of float. That's a notable cover. Over the past month, short interest is down roughly 1.8%. Shorts are reducing exposure, not adding to it.
The borrow market tells a more nuanced story. Cost to borrow is 0.39% — up 129% week-on-week. That spike reflects tighter lending conditions even as shares short decline. Availability remains loose at these levels, well above the 52-week utilization peak of 9.77%.
Truist Securities this morning reiterated a Buy on EXE and raised its price target to $134 from $133 — the day after earnings delivered a +4.9% move. UBS and Barclays both carry Buy/Overweight ratings. Keybanc is the lone recent dissenter, downgrading to Sector Weight on April 2.
The consensus target of $132.69 sits 31% above the current price of $100.99. That's a wide gap. The stock is down 11% over the past month, which explains some of the put demand.
Capital Research added 5.24 million shares in Q1. Victory Capital added 2.16 million. The institutional picture remains constructive.
What to watch: Whether the elevated PCR reflects genuine hedging after the post-earnings rally, or marks peak pessimism before the stock retraces its April losses.
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