Trupanion reports Q1 2026 results today after the close, and the most striking pre-print signal isn't from short sellers — it's from options traders making an abrupt U-turn.
The options market has whiplashed into call-heavy territory going into today's release. The put/call ratio collapsed to 0.53 on April 29, almost 3.5 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 2.04. For context, TRUP has spent most of the past year sitting with a PCR north of 2.0 — heavily put-dominated. The single-session reversal to sub-0.55 is the most bullish the ratio has looked in at least a year. Whether that reflects fresh call buying, put unwinding ahead of the print, or simply positioning into a cheap stock is the question the earnings call will answer.
The borrow market, by contrast, tells a quiet story. Short interest has edged down about 2.5% over the week to 8.3% of the free float — meaningful but not extreme, and drifting in the right direction for bulls. Availability remains comfortable, and cost to borrow is running at just 0.55% annually after a brief mid-April spike to 1.3% that quickly faded. The ORTEX short score of 62 is elevated but has been range-bound this week, suggesting no fresh wave of conviction from the short side heading in. Borrow conditions are loose enough that a squeeze is not the backdrop here.
The Street has spent the past several months quietly walking down expectations. BofA Securities trimmed its target from $63 to $59 on April 14 while keeping a Buy, and Cantor Fitzgerald cut from $42 to $34 in early April while holding Neutral — both actions reflecting the broader target compression that has defined TRUP coverage since the February print. Stifel has maintained its Hold rating through multiple downward revisions, most recently to $31. The mean target across the group now sits at $42.25 against a $25.08 close, implying roughly 68% upside — a gap that sounds dramatic but reflects a consensus that is bifurcated rather than aligned. Bulls like Piper Sandler still carry a target near $45; holders cluster in the low $30s. Valuation is light, with a P/E of just 6.2x and EV/EBITDA around 11.6x, both trending lower over the past month. The earnings yield factor ranks in only the 2nd percentile, and EPS surprise history scores just 11 out of 100 — TRUP has not been a consistent beat-and-raise story.
February's Q4 print delivered the clearest warning. The stock fell 13.5% the day results were published and shed a further 10.8% over the following five days. Q3 2025 saw a 9.2% one-day drop. The pattern is consistent: even when the company posts improving fundamentals — Q4 saw revenue climb to $376.9 million from $337.3 million and full-year net income flip positive — the market has been quick to sell the news. That history, combined with a 12-month low set this week at $25.08 and a 8.4% weekly decline, means bulls need a genuine positive surprise to break the pattern. Director Max Brodén is also stepping down at the annual meeting, a board change disclosed earlier this week that adds a small governance footnote to the print.
Insider activity has been one-directional. COO John Gallagher sold a small tranche on April 28 ahead of results, consistent with a pattern of modest, routine disposals going back to February. Net insider sales over 90 days total roughly $622,000 — not alarming in dollar terms, but there has been no meaningful buying. Institutional ownership is concentrated: BlackRock holds 12.4% and Felix Holdings 9.9%, with Aflac owning 8.4% and unchanged since December. That heavy top-ownership concentration means any large holder reducing leaves a mark. Among correlated peers, LMND was the notable mover this week, dropping nearly 16% — a backdrop that didn't help sentiment across the small-cap insurance cohort. ROOT shed 6.4% over the same period.
The Q1 call tonight is the cleanest catalyst the stock has had in months, and the direction of the options pivot makes the setup worth watching closely.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open TRUP on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
