CABO walks into its Q1 2026 results tonight having shed more than a fifth of its value in a single week — a collapse that makes the print feel less like a catalyst and more like a reckoning.
The stock closed Wednesday at $90.04, down 9.2% on the day alone and 21.8% for the week. That drop did not originate with Cable One. Charter Communications (CHTR) missed Q1 estimates last Thursday, sending its own shares down more than 34% on the week and dragging Cable One — and Liberty Broadband (LBRD.K), off 34.7% — in its wake. The sector read-through was brutal: Cable One's already-fragile subscriber trends made investors reluctant to hold through its own print. At $90, the stock is trading at a level Wells Fargo pencilled in as a downside scenario: the firm maintained its Underweight rating after Q4 results in February and set its target at exactly $90.
The short interest picture has actually grown less charged even as the price craters. SI has eased about 10% over the past week, falling from roughly 800,000 shares to 707,000, leaving the short position at 12.5% of the free float — still a meaningful overhang, but on a clear declining trend that stretches back to late March. The lending market reflects the same relaxation: cost to borrow has more than halved over the past month to just 0.35%, near the lowest reading in the 30-day history. Availability remains loose, with the utilisation of the borrow pool well below last year's peak, meaning there is no structural squeeze pressure here. If anything, shorts have been quietly covering into the price weakness — not adding. The ORTEX short score has slid from around 61 to 58.4 over the past two weeks, consistent with a position that is moderately elevated but no longer building.
The Street has been unambiguously negative for well over a year. TD Cowen slashed its target from $260 to $142 following the Q4 print in February while staying at Hold — effectively a downgrade in all but name. Wells Fargo has trimmed its Underweight target four separate times since early 2025, from $340 all the way to $90. JPMorgan has made a similar journey from $420 to $145, also staying Neutral. No analyst has upgraded the stock in recent memory. The mean price target of $111.75 implies roughly 24% upside from here, but that number reflects targets set months ago at prices far above the current level — treat it as stale context, not a live buy signal. Valuation metrics are deeply distressed: the EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed to 4.5x, and the P/B ratio is 0.3x — both signals of a market pricing in sustained operational deterioration rather than a temporary dip. EPS momentum over 30 days sits in just the 25th percentile, though the 90-day reading is stronger at the 85th — a disparity that reflects a brief post-Q4 relief rally that has since completely reversed.
An SEC 8-K/A filed on April 23rd — amending an earlier filing from April 20th — disclosed changes to director and officer arrangements, adding another layer of uncertainty heading into the print. The CFO, Todd Koetje, bought 998 shares at $100.16 on March 3rd — a small but notable purchase at a price above where the stock trades today. It is the only meaningful insider buy in the dataset. Against a backdrop of routine SVP sales through January and February, that single CFO buy stands out, though its scale is too modest to read as a strong conviction signal.
The Q4 2025 result told a familiar story: revenue fell to $363.7 million from $387.2 million a year earlier, and the full-year net loss ballooned to $356.5 million. HSD subscriber losses and ARPU pressure have been the persistent themes. Tonight's Q1 2026 report is the first real test of whether the Charter read-through accurately prices in what Cable One will disclose — or whether the 22% weekly decline has already over-discounted the bad news. What matters most is whether management can show any stabilisation in subscriber trends, and whether the 8-K/A officer changes signal a strategic pivot or simply routine restructuring. After last quarter's print, the stock gained 5.5% the next day and 21% over the following five sessions — but that was from a very different starting price and market context.
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