Aflac heads into its May 4 Q1 earnings call with the most notable pre-print signal coming not from short sellers or options traders — but from its own largest non-institutional stakeholder trimming its position.
Japan Post Holdings, a 10% owner of Aflac, sold more than $31 million in shares across a cluster of transactions between April 6 and April 9. The disposals were spread across multiple sessions, ranging from small lots to a single $15 million block on April 8. The pattern looks less like a strategic exit and more like a routine portfolio rebalancing — Japan Post has held a strategic stake in Aflac's Japan division for years — but the timing, just weeks before a key earnings release, adds a layer of interest for investors watching ownership trends.
The short side of the ledger is quiet — and deliberately so. Short Interest stands at just 1.6% of the free float, a level that barely registers as a conviction bet against the stock. The borrow market reflects that indifference: cost to borrow is running at 0.31%, near its lowest level in weeks, and availability remains ample. Borrow conditions offer no signal of pressure in either direction. The ORTEX short score of 32.6 sits comfortably in the lower half of the range, consistent with a stock where bears have little structural edge.
Options traders are also relatively relaxed. The put/call ratio is running at 0.42, modestly above its 20-day average of 0.35 but well below anything that would flag defensive positioning — the 52-week high on the PCR is 0.82, and the current reading is barely a third of the way to that level. The RSI14 at 65.4 reflects a stock with decent near-term momentum, despite a 2.2% slip on Thursday and a 1.3% retreat on the week. Over the past month, is up 5%, trading at $113.67.
The analyst community is broadly unmoved by conviction. The consensus sits at buy, but the supporting data tells a more mixed story. Barclays trimmed its target to $99 on April 30 — the day before earnings — while maintaining an Underweight, the lone dissenting voice among recent movers. Mizuho also cut its target slightly to $102, holding its Underperform. On the other side, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods edged its target up to $115 and Wells Fargo lowered slightly to $116, both holding neutral-equivalent ratings. The aggregate analyst return potential is -3.5%, suggesting the Street sees the stock as broadly fairly valued at current levels — a view reflected in the trailing PE near 15.7x and a price-to-book of roughly 2x.
The factor backdrop offers a few points of interest for bulls. The EPS surprise score ranks in the 89th percentile, meaning Aflac has a strong track record of beating estimates. The forward EPS growth score ranks in the 67th percentile, and the dividend score at 78 points to a company with a reliable income profile. The one historical earnings reaction available — Q4 reported in February — saw the stock gain 3.1% on the day. Monday's print will test whether that beat-and-rally pattern holds when analysts have already pulled their targets lower and a key stakeholder has been quietly reducing exposure.
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