Agnico Eagle Mines reports today with the numbers already in — and the headline print lands cleanly on the bull side of the debate.
Q1 adjusted EPS came in at $3.40, beating the Street's $3.26 consensus. Revenue of $4.10B cleared estimates of $3.95B. Profit more than doubled year-on-year, powered by gold prices that remained firmly above the $3,000-per-ounce threshold bulls had flagged as the key leverage point for the company's operating model.
The positioning heading into the print was notably un-anxious. Short interest in AEM was just 1.1% of the free float — low enough that it carries no meaningful signal about institutional conviction either way. Borrow costs ran at roughly 0.59% annualised, and availability was ample, with the lending market well short of any squeeze dynamic. The ORTEX short score of 28.8 placed AEM in the less-pressured half of its universe. What short interest did show was a 25% build over the trailing month — about 1.1 million additional shares — though that rise must be read against a very low base: this is hedging noise, not a bear thesis.
Options traders were the more interesting signal. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.62 by the close of April 30, well below its 20-day average of 0.70 and sitting near its 52-week low of 0.53. That reading — more than 1.2 standard deviations below the mean — pointed to call-side positioning dominance heading into the release. Investors were leaning into the upside, not protecting against the downside.
Analysts had been trimming targets in the weeks before the print, even as most maintained positive ratings. CIBC's Anita Soni cut her target to C$304 from C$312 on April 21, keeping an Outperformer rating. That was the most recent action ahead of results. The broader Street consensus target of $253 implied roughly 34% upside from the $188 close — a wide gap that partly reflects the stock's sharp retreat from its February high near $252. AEM fell around 25% from peak to its recent trough, largely tracking a softer gold tape. The bear case centred on gold price sensitivity: the bear valuation scenario anchored on $2,000/oz gold and flagged infrastructure constraints in certain mine zones. That scenario looks less relevant with gold well clear of that floor.
The print is therefore less about whether Agnico can operate its mines profitably and more about whether management's guidance on production volumes and cost per ounce for the remainder of 2026 is sufficient to close the gap between the current price and what the Street thinks the business is worth.
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