Camden Property Trust walks into its May 1 Q1 results with options traders more defensively positioned than at any point in recent memory.
The clearest signal is in the put/call ratio, which jumped to 1.34 on April 30 — nearly three standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.84. That is an unusually sharp skew toward protective puts for a multifamily REIT, and it arrives just as the stock has clawed back 7.3% over the past month to close at $105.02. The options market appears to be hedging against a reversal of that recovery rather than pressing the long side.
Short interest adds a more nuanced read. At 5.5% of the free float, the short position is not extreme, but it has grown — up nearly 6% over the past week and 14% over the past month. That acceleration in conviction from the short side stands in contrast to the stock's recent price rebound, setting up a tension the Q1 numbers are directly positioned to resolve. Borrowing costs remain negligible at 0.44%, and availability in the lending market is ample, so there is no meaningful mechanical pressure forcing shorts to cover.
The bull and bear debate on CPT is fundamentally a question of whether the recovery in multifamily fundamentals will materialise on schedule. Bulls point to a projected 2.6% same-store revenue growth for 2026 and a long-run FFO-per-share growth trajectory averaging 4.6% annually through 2030 — a credible compounding case for a well-run Sunbelt-focused operator. Bears counter that the FFO estimate has already been trimmed, from $7.19 to $7.05 per share, and flag softness in key markets including Washington D.C. and Houston, where supply is heavier than expected. The analyst community has leaned cautious in the run-up: Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays all trimmed targets in recent months while holding neutral ratings, with the consensus mean sitting at $114.29 — suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels, but with conviction spread thin across hold-equivalent ratings. One bright spot: the company ranks in the 97th percentile on EPS surprise history and holds a 92nd-percentile dividend score, both of which underpin the income-investor bid.
Insider activity skews net negative over the past 90 days, with $6.2 million in net selling led by founder-Chairman-CEO Richard Campo, who offloaded roughly $4.8 million worth of shares in early January. Routine executive selling at a REIT is not unusual, but the scale from the founder adds a small but real footnote to the cautious tone set by the options market. Peers moved broadly in line this week — MAA, EQR, and ESS all added 2-4% — meaning CPT's recovery has tracked the sector rather than outpaced it.
The Q1 print is therefore less a verdict on Camden's strategy and more a test of whether same-store revenue and NOI trends are running ahead of, in line with, or behind the guidance the company set at the start of the year.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open CPT on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
