Eldorado Gold reports Q1 2026 results today against a backdrop where short sellers have been cutting positions at a notable pace — making the setup markedly less bearish than it was just weeks ago.
Short interest has dropped sharply, the clearest signal of waning conviction on the bear side. Estimated shares short fell 23% over the past week to 1.6% of the free float, unwinding a build that had pushed the position to a local peak of around 4.2 million shares on April 22. That is a significant reversal in a brief window. The borrow market reflects the same loosening: cost to borrow is modest at 0.58%, and availability is ample, meaning there is no meaningful friction for anyone looking to add or cover a short position.
The prior earnings print delivered a sharp initial reaction. In February, the stock fell more than 7% on the day results crossed and gave back further ground over the following week before stabilising. That reaction followed an earlier event where the same pattern — an 8% intraday drop — repeated. Peers across the gold complex have also had a difficult week: Kinross Gold fell 6.4%, Centerra Gold shed 7.4%, and dropped 7.1% over seven days. itself pulled back nearly 7% over the same stretch before recovering 3.7% on Wednesday to close at CAD 41.97 — suggesting the sector backdrop offered a partial headwind, rather than company-specific pressure.
The institutional picture adds a constructive angle. BlackRock added 6.6 million shares as of March 31, lifting its stake to 12% of the company — a material move from the world's largest asset manager. Van Eck Associates, a specialist gold-fund manager, held steady at 5.5%. Smaller managers including Mackenzie Financial, Connor Clark & Lunn, and Millennium Management all added fresh positions in Q4 2025, clustering their purchases around the same period. Against that backdrop, the 90-day net insider activity shows a net buy position, though individual ticket sizes were small and largely linked to routine compensation plans rather than discretionary conviction.
Valuation context gives bulls something to work with. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed to 2.8x — down modestly over the past month — while the earnings yield factor score ranks in the 89th percentile of the sector on an EV/EBIT basis. The short score of 28.6 has fallen steadily from above 32 two weeks ago, consistent with the rolling-off of short interest. That combination — cheap on earnings yield, shrinking short position, institutional inflows — frames today's print as a test of whether the operational results justify the relative value case or whether the two consecutive day-one post-earnings drops reflect something more persistent in execution.
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