Hamilton Insurance Group reports Q1 2026 results today riding its best monthly price performance in recent memory — and options traders are more bullish than at almost any point in the past year.
Options positioning is the standout signal heading into the print. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.17, more than a full standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.41, making it one of the lowest readings of the past 52 weeks. That is not hedging — it is a market leaning hard into upside. The shift is stark: through most of April the PCR ran above 0.59, then broke sharply lower around April 20, suggesting a concentrated rotation into calls as the stock climbed through the $32 level.
Short sellers are not adding to that conviction — they are quietly retreating. At 1.45% of the free float, short interest is modest and falling, down roughly 8% over the past week and 10% over the past month. Borrow conditions are relaxed: cost to borrow sits below 1% despite edging up about 22% week-on-week, and availability remains generous. The ORTEX short score has drifted lower to 30.6 — well away from any extreme — and days to cover have compressed to around 1.1. There is no meaningful squeeze dynamic here; shorts are simply exiting a low-conviction position.
The analyst community has been consistently constructive, with multiple target increases in the run-up. Barclays (Overweight, $37 target) and Citizens (Market Outperform, $36) both lifted targets in April, while the mean consensus target of $33 is nearly in line with the current $32.77 close — leaving modest formal upside. The bull case centers on Hamilton's casualty premium growth momentum (26% increase in Q2, 21% year-to-date by prior estimates), specialty reinsurance positioning, and the halo from its Two Sigma investment allocation. Bears point to direct sensitivity of the price target to book value fluctuations, and to variability in the TSHF returns that underpin part of the investment thesis. EPS surprise ranks in the 91st percentile historically, a consistently positive beat record. The two prior quarterly prints — a 4.0% one-day gain in February and a 5.7% one-day gain before that — both resolved to the upside, with five-day moves of +2.3% and +7.8% respectively.
A special $2.00 dividend announced in February has added an income dimension. The 12-month forward yield of 4.22% looks notable for a $3.2 billion specialty insurer trading at roughly 1.0x book value. Institutional ownership is concentrated — Magnitude Capital holds 15.2% — and insider activity in March showed clustered selling by the CEO, CFO, and several division heads, though all at prices below the current level and consistent with award-driven distributions rather than a shift in fundamental conviction.
Today's print is less about whether Hamilton is growing and more about whether casualty pricing discipline and the Two Sigma allocation can sustain returns at a book-value multiple that has just recovered from a softer 2025.
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