Duke Energy reports Q1 2026 results on May 5 against a backdrop where the core bull-bear argument — whether a ~6.5% EPS growth runway justifies a dividend yield that badly lags the sector — remains unresolved, and where analyst opinion has quietly split in opposite directions in recent weeks.
The clearest tension going into the print is on the growth-versus-income side. Bulls point to the updated Carolinas Resource Plan as a trigger for a step-up in capital expenditure, arguing that data centre demand and roughly 2% annual population growth across the Carolinas, Florida, and Indiana underpin a durable revenue ramp. The company's consensus EPS estimate for Q1 sits near $1.80 per share. The bear case is harder to dismiss: Duke's dividend grows at roughly 2% per year versus a sector average around 5.5%. At a 3.4% forward yield on a $128.60 stock, income investors have cheaper alternatives, and the utility premium is harder to defend if earnings disappoint.
Analyst moves in April reinforced the split. Truist initiated at Buy with a $142 target on April 21, the same day Morgan Stanley trimmed its target to $141 while holding Equal-Weight — a snapshot of how close the upside-versus-sideways debate has become. Earlier in the month, Barclays raised its target to $143 from $127, and BMO lifted to $143 from $136, both keeping positive ratings. The mean target across the Street is $139, implying about 8% upside to the current price — present but not compelling, and the PE of roughly 18.9x is not cheap for a regulated utility with slow dividend growth.
Short interest does not tell a bearish story. At 1.8% of free float, positioning is light and has been retreating — down nearly 14% over the past month from a peak above 20 million shares short in late March. Borrowing is essentially free at 0.48% cost to borrow, and the borrow market is comfortable: availability remains ample, well away from any squeeze territory. The ORTEX short score of 33 places Duke in the lower half of the universe on bearish conviction. Options positioning is close to neutral, with the put/call ratio at 0.54 — barely above its 20-day average of 0.52 and nowhere near the 52-week defensive high of 0.76. The last earnings print in February produced a one-day gain of roughly 2.9% and a five-day move of about 4.1%, so the market's recent tendency has been to reward the stock after results.
The Q1 report will test whether the accelerating capex case is showing up in cost discipline and whether management reaffirms the above-6.5% EPS growth target — the single number that separates the Truist bulls from the Morgan Stanley sideline.
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