Tenaris heads into its May 6 Q1 results with short sellers actively retreating — making the earnings print a test of whether the bullish momentum can survive contact with the numbers.
The short-selling exodus is the most striking feature of the current setup. Shares short have fallen roughly 45% over the past month, dropping from over 9.3 million at the end of March to around 4.6 million by April 30. Borrow costs have followed the same direction, easing to under 0.9% from above 2% in late March. Availability in the lending market has also loosened materially — the borrow pool was almost entirely depleted in early April (availability was at its 52-week tightest) but has since opened up considerably. Options positioning reinforces the bullish lean: the put/call ratio has dropped to 0.53, more than one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.61, placing it near the low end of the past year's range.
The price action tells the same story. Tenaris has rallied 9.5% over the past month to close at $63.70, with the RSI running at nearly 74 — technically overbought territory. YTD the stock is up 66%. That backdrop shapes the analyst debate sharply. Barclays lifted its target from $56 to $72 on April 20 while holding an Overweight rating — a meaningful upgrade that puts the stock inside that target at current prices. Morgan Stanley is moving the other way: the firm kept its Underweight rating even as it raised its target to $50 from $40 on April 15, implying meaningful downside from here. The mean price target across the Street sits at $58.56 — already below the current price — and the analyst consensus return potential is -8%, a rare signal that the market has outrun institutional expectations. The bull case rests on a strong OCTG backlog in Argentina and Suriname, with rising import volumes reinforcing demand. Bears counter that EBITDA estimates for 2026 remain flat and steel input pricing offers little upside cushion.
The historical reaction pattern adds further weight to the event. The last two earnings releases — both in February 2026 — each produced one-day gains of around 5-9%, with five-day moves of 9-10% in the same direction. Those were positive surprises. With the stock already running hard into this print and consensus sitting below the market price, the Q1 report is less about whether Tenaris is growing and more about whether the backlog visibility and margin delivery can justify a valuation that has moved well beyond where most analysts are willing to follow.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open TS on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
