Restaurant Brands International heads into its Q1 2026 earnings call on May 6 with a fast-building short position and a decidedly bullish options market — two signals pointing in very different directions.
The clearest tension in the setup is the rapid growth of short interest. QSR's SI % of free float has nearly doubled in a month, rising from roughly 2.7% in late March to just under 5% now. Most of that build came in April, with short positions climbing more than 12% in the past week alone. Yet the lending market offers little confirmation of a conviction bear trade — cost to borrow is minimal at 0.54%, and availability remains very loose, meaning new shorts face no friction entering the position. The ORTEX short score of 41.7, climbing steadily over the past two weeks, reflects the accumulating pressure without yet reaching alarm levels.
Options traders are reading the situation very differently. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.38, well below its 20-day average of 0.48 and nearly at the 52-week low of 0.30. That's unusually call-heavy for a stock heading into earnings, and the z-score of -1.19 confirms the skew has moved materially toward the bullish side over the past month. Notably, the PCR hovered above 0.60 as recently as early April, so the shift toward calls has been rapid. The stock itself has recovered 8.3% over the past month to $80.03, though it has given back roughly 1% in the most recent week.
The analyst community has been unanimous in one direction: upward revisions. Five separate target-price raises arrived in the final two weeks of April alone. JPMorgan lifted its target to $80 while keeping its Overweight rating, and RBC pushed to $90 with an Outperform. Even the more cautious voices moved higher — Scotiabank's Sector Perform carried a new $81 target, up from $71. The mean target now sits at $83.28, modestly above the current price. Bulls focus on the Tim Hortons recovery, potential for EBITDA contribution acceleration, and the franchise model's resilience. Bears counter that franchise-fee revenue concentration leaves the top line exposed to same-store sales softness, and that a crowded, mature quick-service market makes sustained growth harder to sustain.
One data point worth noting on the ownership side: insiders sold heavily in mid-March, with CEO Joshua Kobza, CFO Sami Siddiqui, and General Counsel Jill Granat all selling in a cluster between March 16–20 at prices in the $73–$75 range. The stock has since moved meaningfully higher. That insider selling came well before the April short build, suggesting the two moves are unlikely to be related. Past earnings reactions have been volatile, with a 6% single-day gain in February 2026 followed by a similarly sized single-day loss in another February print.
The May 6 print is therefore a test of whether the call-heavy options market or the accumulating short position has read the same-store sales trajectory more accurately — and whether management's franchise execution can justify targets that are already sitting at or above the current price.
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