Quanta Services heads into its May 7 Q1 earnings call having already won the analyst argument — the debate now is whether the 35% one-month rally has moved too fast.
The clearest story heading in is the wall of analyst upgrades. JPMorgan raised its target to $805 from $627 on May 1. Citigroup lifted to $837 from $733 the same day. Evercore ISI moved to $800 from $635. All three maintained positive ratings. The consensus mean target now stands at $703 — below the current $742 close — which on its own might signal caution, but the pace of upward revisions is aggressive enough to suggest the Street is still catching up to the move rather than capping it. The RSI-14 has climbed to 83.8, a technically overbought reading. The stock is up nearly 19% on the week alone, far outpacing close peers MTZ (+11%), FIX (+8.2%), and STRL (+7.1%).
The bull case rests on structural demand. Q4 2025 revenues hit $7.84 billion, up nearly 20% year-over-year, with Quanta's electric segment backlog reaching a record $36.2 billion — up 26% year-on-year. Grid modernisation and clean energy infrastructure are driving order flow with no visible ceiling. EPS momentum ranks in the 83rd percentile on a 30-day basis and the 74th on 90-day, suggesting estimate revisions have been broadly positive. Bears point to a different set of numbers: the electric and underground segment operating margin compressed 130 basis points year-over-year to 10.8%, and project execution risk is real in a business this labour-intensive. Supply chain inflation and workforce availability remain structural friction points. The P/E multiple has expanded roughly 9.9 points over the past 30 days to nearly 51x — a level that prices in continued execution with little room for disappointment.
Short interest adds little fuel to either side. At 3.3% of free float, with borrowing costs barely above 0.4% and borrow availability comfortably loose, there is no meaningful short squeeze pressure in the lending market. Short interest rose about 14% over the past month in share terms, tracking the price move rather than driving it — the ORTEX short score of 39 ranks in just the 32nd percentile, well below levels that would flag serious bearish conviction. Institutional ownership is broad and passive-heavy, led by Vanguard at 12.1% and BlackRock at 8.6%, both adding modestly through March.
The May 7 print will test whether Quanta can demonstrate that record backlog is translating into margin recovery — not just revenue growth — at a valuation that now prices in near-perfection.
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