ONE Gas heads into its Q1 2026 earnings report with short sellers notably more active than they were just weeks ago.
Short interest has climbed sharply into the print. SI now runs at 5.1% of the free float — up 25.6% over the past week and 20.5% over the past month. The bulk of that move happened in a single step: positions jumped from roughly 2.46 million shares on April 23 to nearly 3.0 million by April 27, a build of around 22% in four sessions. That kind of concentrated accumulation is unusual for a regulated gas utility. Despite the fresh short interest, the borrow market remains loose. Cost to borrow is just 0.45% annualised — actually down about 8% on the week — and availability is not a constraint, with the ORTEX short score at 44.4, well below levels that signal any squeeze dynamic.
Options positioning, by contrast, tells a calmer story. The put/call ratio is running at 0.20, modestly above its 20-day average of 0.17 but only about 0.9 standard deviations above the mean. Against a 52-week high of 1.36, that reading looks almost relaxed. The stock itself has been flat to slightly negative over the longer window — down less than 0.1% in a month — but recovered 1.3% on the week to close at $88.82, outperforming close peers CPK and , both of which slipped slightly over the same period.
Analyst opinion has grown more constructive in the run-up, even as some caution lingers. Truist Securities initiated coverage with a Buy and a $99 target on April 21, the same day Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $86 while keeping an Equal-Weight rating — a combination that captures the two-sided debate neatly. Bulls point to operational discipline, weather-driven demand tailwinds, and potential customer growth from new housing. Bears focus on geographic concentration — ONE Gas derives most revenue from Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas — and the longer-term risk of fuel switching away from natural gas. The consensus mean target of $92.38 sits a little above the current price, implying limited but positive upside in aggregate.
The Q1 print will test whether the sharp late-April short build reflects a genuine read on earnings headwinds or simply repositioning ahead of a rate case update — and whether weather-driven demand in the quarter was enough to validate the bulls' constructive stance on operational execution.
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