ERO reports its Q1 2026 results today against a backdrop of sharp price losses and widespread sector-wide pressure — the question is whether the copper story still holds at these levels.
The price decline dominates the setup. ERO has fallen 15% over the past month and another 11% in the past week alone, closing at CAD 33.35. The selling is not isolated: close peers FM dropped nearly 10% on the week, HBM fell 6.5%, and LUN lost 6.7%. The whole copper complex is under pressure, making it harder to read stock-specific signals from the price action alone.
Short sellers are not the driver here. ERO's short interest stands at just 1.85% of the free float — a modest level by any measure — and the borrow market remains extremely loose. Availability is ample, with cost to borrow running below 1% at 0.67% annualised. The ORTEX short score of 31 is well within normal territory. Short interest has edged up roughly 7% over the past week, but from a low base, this reflects sector sentiment rather than a meaningful directional bet against ERO specifically.
The valuation case provides an interesting counterweight to the bearish price action. At a P/E near 6.3x and an EV/EBITDA of roughly 4.3x, ERO looks cheap in absolute terms. The analyst mean price target of CAD 47.46 implies upside of around 42% from current levels — though with no recent analyst changes logged in the data, that consensus reflects positioning from late April rather than any fresh post-selloff reassessment. The EV/EBIT ratio of 3.75x and an earnings yield near 16% underscore that the market is pricing in meaningful execution risk, particularly on the capital expenditure side: the company is running capex of over $300 million against operating cash flow of roughly $500 million.
The ownership picture adds one notable detail. The Founder and Executive Chairman David Strang sold approximately 465,000 shares in January — worth roughly $14 million — and has since reduced his reported holding by 1 million shares. That selling occurred at prices between $39 and $52, well above today's level. Fidelity International and FMR (Fidelity's US arm) together hold over 21% of shares and added substantially to their positions in recent reporting periods, providing a counterbalancing institutional anchor.
The print will test whether ERO's operational execution — and any copper price outlook commentary — is strong enough to arrest a decline that has now wiped out a significant chunk of the year-to-date gains its peer group had built up.
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