LOMA heads into its Q1 2026 results with options sentiment at its most cautious in a year — and the borrow market fully drained.
The shift in options positioning is the sharpest signal ahead of today's print. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.70, nearly matching the 52-week high of 0.696 from just days ago, and running well above its 20-day average of 0.39. That's roughly 1.2 standard deviations above normal — the heaviest tilt toward downside protection LOMA has seen all year. The move coincides with a slide in the stock: LOMA has dropped 5.4% over the past month to $10.47, including a 3.1% fall on the week.
The borrow market reinforces the cautious read. Availability has essentially collapsed to zero — every share in the lending pool is currently out on loan, a level that has held for most of the past month. Cost to borrow is running at 4.5%, broadly stable over the period. Short interest itself is a modest 1.7% of the free float, and has actually fallen roughly 9% over the past month, so there is no meaningful short-selling pressure building — rather, shorts that existed are already fully committed and the lending market has no slack left.
The Street is broadly constructive, but the most recent analyst activity is dated. Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight and BofA lifted to Buy in the spring of 2025, with targets then ranging from $14 to $15. Citigroup initiated with a Buy and a $16 target in June 2025. At $10.47, those targets imply meaningful upside on paper — but given that the moves are now approaching or beyond the six-month mark, the gap between price and target deserves a neutral read rather than firm conviction. Factor scores are a genuine bright spot: LOMA ranks at the 100th percentile on EPS surprise and the 98th on dividend score, and EPS momentum over 30 days is firmly in the top 15% of the universe.
Earnings history offers modest context. The most recent comparable print — April 23 — produced a 3% one-day drop and a 3.7% five-day loss. The March 6 release, by contrast, saw a slight gain. The pattern is inconsistent, which makes the defensive options positioning all the more notable as a signal of genuine investor uncertainty about this print.
The earnings release is therefore less a test of whether Loma Negra is generating earnings surprises — it clearly has been — and more a test of whether the macro Argentine backdrop and cement demand picture can justify a re-rating back toward analyst targets.
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