A concentrated buyer has loaded up on RPAY shares at depressed prices — and those positions now face their first test as the company reports Q1 2026 earnings on May 8.
The most striking feature of the setup is the insider buying cluster. Forager Fund LP, RPAY's largest shareholder with 13.5% of shares, spent roughly $7.3m acquiring stock across eight consecutive trading days in late March and early April — buying at prices between $2.42 and $3.05. The stock has since rallied 55% over the past month to close at $4.00, meaning the fund is sitting on material paper gains. That concentrated buying programme signals unusually high conviction from a holder that is directly accountable for the performance. No offsetting insider selling of comparable scale accompanied the purchases; two minor executive sales in March totalled less than $27k.
The short side has capitulated sharply. Short interest has fallen by more than a third over the past month, from around 5.9m shares to 3.5m — now 4.3% of free float. Borrow availability is ample and the cost to borrow, at just under 2%, has risen modestly over the past week but remains low in absolute terms. The ORTEX short score has dropped from 57.9 on April 17 to 47.1 today, reflecting that unwinding pressure. Options traders are not positioned defensively: the put/call ratio of 0.33 runs slightly below its 20-day average of 0.34, and is nowhere near the 52-week high of 1.63. There is no sign of hedged positioning into the print.
The analyst community is broadly bullish but has been cutting targets steadily. Five buy ratings face no sells, and the mean price target of $8 implies roughly 70% upside from current levels — though that figure carries a wide confidence interval after a string of downgrades since last November. DA Davidson reiterated Buy at $8 on April 28, the most recent action. The bull case rests on integrated payment processing, diverse revenue streams, and free cash flow generation. Bears have focused on acquisition-driven leverage, particularly the $372m Kubra deal, and the risk that integrating a large acquisition clouds the organic growth picture. The stock trades at a PE of 4.2x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.4x — multiples consistent with a company the market is pricing for execution risk rather than growth.
The Q1 print is therefore less a question of whether RPAY can grow and more a test of whether the Kubra integration is proceeding on plan and whether leverage is tracking toward the trajectory management has outlined — the answer will either validate Forager's conviction or put the recent rally back under pressure.
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