COMPASS Pathways reports Q1 2026 results on May 7 after a month that has completely re-priced the stock — and the short-side has scrambled to keep up.
Options positioning has actually turned more bullish into the print. The put/call ratio is running at 0.74, a touch below its 20-day average of 0.80, and well off the 1.38 peak recorded in late March. That shift tracks the dramatic price move: CMPS has climbed 64% over the past month to close at $9.52, adding another 7% in the last week alone. The borrow market, however, reflects genuine positioning stress. Short shares outstanding jumped 77% in a single month to roughly 11 million — the bulk of that surge arrived in the final week of April, when reported positions rose 27% in five sessions. Despite that buildup, borrowing remains cheap at 0.60% and availability is not particularly tight, suggesting the new shorts can still get stock without paying a premium to do so.
The analyst debate heading in has a clear structure. Bulls point to the Phase 3 data for COMP360 in treatment-resistant depression and a forthcoming FDA meeting to discuss the NDA filing pathway — Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy and an $18 target just yesterday, and B. Riley started at Buy ($17) the week prior. Ten of the analysts on record rate the stock a Buy, with a consensus mean target near $21 — more than double the current price, giving CMPS one of the widest return potentials in the screener at 138%. Bears counter that efficacy results in the trials were not compelling enough to guarantee approval, competition is building in the psychedelic therapeutics space, and the company remains deeply unprofitable with a negative earnings yield. One outlier target of $70 from HC Wainwright sits far above the rest of the Street and appears to reflect a different framework; the cluster of more recent initiations in the $14–$22 range is the more representative read. Morgan Stanley's Vikram Purohit trimmed his target twice in six weeks — from $18 to $16 — while maintaining Overweight, a signal the bank remains constructive but is resetting expectations after disappointing earlier results.
The ownership picture adds a layer of context. ARK Investment Management added over one million shares in the quarter ending March 31, bringing its position to roughly 1.6% of outstanding shares. That followed a period when AtaiBeckley — a strategic backer — trimmed by more than a million shares in January. Insider sales from the CEO and CFO have been small and routine, none exceeding $110,000, suggesting the distribution has been plan-driven rather than a signal of reduced conviction from management.
Thursday's print is less a conventional earnings test and more a catalyst check — the market is watching for any update on the FDA meeting timeline and NDA submission strategy that could either validate the 64% re-rating or expose it as a positioning overshoot.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open CMPS on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
