QXO heads into its May 8 earnings release with short positioning near a multi-month high and the borrow market tightening sharply — a combination that makes this a closely watched print for an already pressured stock.
The short interest story dominates the setup. Short interest has climbed 38% over the past month to reach 13.6% of the free float, with the past week alone adding nearly 7%. The ORTEX short score now reads 78.4 — the highest recorded level in the available history and in the 1st percentile of the broader universe. That level of short-side conviction is not subtle. Borrow availability has tightened in step: the lending pool is now close to the tightest it has been all year, with availability running at its 52-week low. Cost to borrow spiked from under 0.5% in mid-April to above 5% before easing back to 2.7%, a move that signals a rush for borrow capacity that has partially cooled but not reversed. Against this backdrop, the stock trades at $18.87, down nearly 4% on the week and roughly flat over the past month — a level meaningfully below where insiders were selling shares at $25.52 in January.
Options positioning has also shifted more defensive than usual heading into the print. The put/call ratio has risen to 0.62, running above its 20-day average of 0.51 and sitting about one standard deviation on the cautious side. That is not extreme by absolute standards — the 52-week high is 0.83 — but the directional drift since mid-April is clear. The PCR was below 0.40 for much of that period; it has since climbed steadily as the stock rolled lower.
The bull and bear cases are in genuine tension here. Bulls point to QXO's strategic identity as a would-be tech-enabled consolidator of building products distribution, with the pending TopBuild acquisition framed as a highly accretive move and a management team — led by Brad Jacobs — with a track record in platform-building. Analyst targets from Oppenheimer and Keybanc, both recently raised to $32, imply roughly 70% upside from current levels. RBC trimmed its target to $28 in early April but kept an Outperform rating, suggesting the firm-level direction of travel remains constructive even as individual targets move around. Bears counter that the housing market and roofing cycle are delivering real near-term damage to organic estimates, that the heavy investment cycle weighs on near-term profitability, and that the stock's valuation — P/E near 38x despite negative organic momentum — leaves limited margin for error.
History adds context rather than comfort. The last three earnings events each produced an immediate negative reaction: the stock fell roughly 3–5% on the day and extended losses to 7–9% over the following five sessions. The May 8 print will test whether the organic demand picture is turning ahead of a potential second-half recovery in roofing volumes, or whether the macro headwinds are proving stickier than the bull case assumed.
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