TIMB heads into today's Q1 results having climbed 7% over the past week to $27.10 — but the borrow market tells a quietly different story.
Short interest has ticked up roughly 11% over the past week, reaching around 3.7 million shares. That is a modest absolute level for an ADR of this size, and the short score of 57.8 — while elevated to a new recent high and ranking in the 93rd percentile of the universe — does not in isolation suggest extreme conviction from bears. More telling is availability: the lending pool has tightened sharply in recent weeks, with availability dropping from above 70% in late March to around 50% now. That is a meaningful compression, even if it has not yet entered the very-tight range below 50%. Cost to borrow, meanwhile, has collapsed from a spike near 9.5% in early April to just 2.5% today — a sign that the brief borrow crunch has eased considerably, leaving the lending market in a loosening phase. Days to cover register at over 7 by official FINRA data, ranking in the 96th percentile — meaning it would take shorts several sessions to unwind even at normal volumes.
The analyst picture is mixed but shows a clear directional drift. Barclays raised its target to $27 in April while holding an Equal-Weight rating — essentially flagging fair value at current prices. Scotiabank made the more aggressive move in late March, lifting its target to $29.50 from $23.60, a 25% jump in the target that now sits the most bullish among recent Street actions. The stock has nearly caught up to the Barclays target already; that compression between price and consensus upside is visible in the factor scores, where analyst recommendation differential ranks in just the 8th percentile — meaning the Street as a whole is far from uniformly bullish. EPS momentum, by contrast, scores in the 68th–70th percentile on both 30- and 90-day windows, and the EPS surprise factor ranks at the 73rd percentile, giving bulls concrete operational support for the move. The dividend score at the 98th percentile rounds out a value-and-income case that Brazilian telco investors typically lean on.
The historical reaction pattern reinforces why the print matters. The last two earnings events in early February both generated first-day gains of roughly 7–7.5%, with five-day follow-through of 2–4%. That is a consistent pattern of positive post-earnings drift — and with the stock already up sharply into today's release, the question the report will test is whether the underlying fundamentals are strong enough to justify the price sitting level with or above analyst targets, or whether the stock has borrowed from its own future returns.
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