FLEX reports Q4 FY2026 results today with the stock having already done a lot of the work — up 41% over the past month and 11% on the week alone, trading at $96.45.
The rally has reshaped the setup heading into the print. Short sellers have been retreating: short interest has dropped roughly 6% over the past month to just 2.1% of the free float. Borrow conditions are loose, with cost to borrow at a negligible 0.29% — down 38% on the week — and availability broad and unrestrictive. The short score of 32, easing steadily over recent sessions, confirms that bearish conviction in the lending market is fading, not building. Options positioning, however, tells a different story. The put/call ratio is running at 1.90, comfortably above its 20-day average of 1.84 and near its 52-week high of 2.10. That elevated demand for puts looks like hedging against the gains already banked rather than fresh bearish conviction.
The bull case centres on forward earnings growth, with the 12-month forward EPS YoY increase ranked in the 90th percentile of the universe — the standout factor score in the snapshot. Bulls point to Flex's raised full-year FY2026 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance of $26.5bn, data centre demand momentum, and a strengthened cash position. The valuation has re-rated sharply with the move: the P/E has expanded by nearly six turns over the past month to 24x, and price-to-book has climbed more than 1.3 points to 5.5x. Analysts are mostly constructive — Stifel raised its target to $95 and JPMorgan lifted to $84 in mid-to-late April, both maintaining positive ratings — yet the consensus mean target of $82.25 now sits roughly 15% below the current price. That gap is the core tension: the stock has outrun the Street. Bears will flag margin pressure in the Reliability segment, ongoing demand softness in parts of the electronics supply chain, and the history of the February earnings print, which saw the stock drop nearly 9% on the day before recovering most of the loss over the subsequent week.
The stock comes in with RSI at 72.8 — technically overbought territory — and a 51.8% YTD gain. BlackRock recently added nearly 6.9 million shares to lift its stake to 13.6% of outstanding, while Vanguard added over 25 million shares. That institutional conviction provides a durable ownership base, but at current levels it also means significant unrealised gains sitting in large, price-sensitive portfolios.
The print is ultimately a test of whether the operational trajectory — particularly data centre demand and Agility segment margins — can justify a valuation that has already moved well past where the analyst community felt comfortable raising targets.
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