TFPM reports into an unusual split: the business just delivered record Q1 results, yet insiders and the majority shareholder have been heavy sellers heading into the print.
The Q1 numbers landed after yesterday's close and beat on the bottom line. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.45, ahead of the $0.43 consensus estimate. Revenue of $147.0M narrowly missed estimates but the company still called them record Q1 results. A Q2 dividend was declared alongside. Yet the stock closed May 5 at C$42.50 — down nearly 15% over the past month and off 3.5% on the week — a selloff that has outpaced most precious metals peers. FNV and WPM both declined roughly 3.4-3.6% on the week, while K and AEM fell harder at around 6% and 5.9% respectively. TFPM's drawdown looks sector-driven rather than company-specific.
The more pointed story heading into today's earnings call is insider activity. Elliott Investment Management, the majority shareholder controlling 64.5% of shares, sold 567,512 shares on March 31 in a transaction worth over $20M USD. That same day, CEO and Founder Sheldon Vanderkooy sold 25,000 shares. Independent Director Geoffrey Burns sold 100,000 shares on March 27 for just over $3.2M USD. In total, net insider activity over the past 90 days amounts to a net disposal of roughly 810,500 shares, worth nearly $29.2M USD. That is a meaningful cluster of selling at prices well above where the stock trades now — Burns and Vanderkooy both sold in the high C$40s and C$50s, while Elliott's transaction was recorded at C$35.88, suggesting those sales occurred across a range of prices as the stock declined.
Short positioning offers little additional signal. SI barely registers at 0.81% of the free float — far below the threshold where it shapes the debate. Borrow availability remains loose, cost to borrow has drifted back down to 0.61% after a brief spike to 4.2% in early April, and the ORTEX short score of 33 is middling. There is no short-side pressure worth flagging.
On valuation, the stock trades at a PE of approximately 21.8x, down about 2.7 points over the past 30 days as the price has compressed. EV/EBITDA is running near 14.6x. The EPS momentum factor score at the 30-day horizon is weak at 17th percentile, though the 90-day reading is more constructive at the 70th percentile — a gap that points to near-term estimate pressure following through from the broader gold sector rotation. The previous two earnings prints produced a 1-day gain of roughly 5% in February and about 3% in February 2026, though five-day follow-through was mixed.
Today's call is therefore less about whether Triple Flag can deliver operationally — the record Q1 beat settles that — and more about whether management can explain the sharp gap between insider selling prices and the current share price, and offer a portfolio outlook that reassures investors the growth trajectory justifies the multiple after a difficult month.
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